Lech Poznan
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lech Poznan22.8%fair odds 4.39
Draw21.5%fair odds 4.65
Bayer Leverkusen55.7%fair odds 1.79
Expected goals1.33 – 2.15total 3.49
Likeliest score1–29.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bayer Leverkusen
Baseline: average Bundesliga opponent
Attack Uplift
+17%
Expected goals
Baseline1.83Forecast2.15
Conceding Risk
−15%
Expected goals conceded
Baseline1.56Forecast1.33
Clean Sheet
+5.4 pp
Chance of conceding no goals
Baseline21.0%Forecast26.4%
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lech Poznan ↓ · Bayer Leverkusen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lech Poznan goals, columns Bayer Leverkusen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–29.5%10.57
- 1–19.2%10.81
- 0–27.1%14.09
- 1–36.8%14.72
- 2–26.3%15.86
- 0–16.1%16.33
- 2–15.9%17.08
- 0–35.1%19.63
- 2–34.5%22.09
- 1–43.7%27.34
Winning margin
3.3%
Lech Poznan by 3+
fair 30.49
6.5%
Lech Poznan by 2
fair 15.49
13.0%
Lech Poznan by 1
fair 7.66
21.5%
Draw
fair 4.65
21.4%
Bayer Leverkusen by 1
fair 4.68
16.9%
Bayer Leverkusen by 2
fair 5.93
17.5%
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+
fair 5.71
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
27%5+
Lech Poznan goals
26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Bayer Leverkusen goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan win | 22.8% | 23.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 21.5% | 22.2% | -0.7 pp |
| Bayer Leverkusen win | 55.7% | 54.9% | +0.9 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 67.7% | 65.0% | +2.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 65.6% | 63.6% | +2.0 pp |
| Expected goals Lech Poznan | 1.33 | 1.28 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen | 2.15 | 2.06 | +0.09 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lech Poznan win22.8%4.39
- Draw21.5%4.65
- Bayer Leverkusen win55.7%1.79
- Double chance Lech Poznan or draw44.3%2.26
- Double chance Lech Poznan or Bayer Leverkusen78.5%1.27
- Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw77.2%1.30
- Draw no bet Lech Poznan29.0%3.45
- Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen71.0%1.41
Goals
- Over 0.596.5%1.04
- Over 1.586.7%1.15
- Over 2.567.7%1.48
- Over 3.546.1%2.17
- Over 4.527.2%3.67
- Under 1.513.3%7.54
- Under 2.532.3%3.09
- Under 3.553.9%1.85
Both teams to score
- Yes65.6%1.53
- No34.4%2.90
- Yes and over 2.556.3%1.78
- Lech Poznan win and yes14.7%6.80
- Draw and yes18.0%5.56
- Bayer Leverkusen win and yes32.9%3.04
Team goals
- Lech Poznan over 0.573.6%1.36
- Lech Poznan over 1.538.5%2.60
- Lech Poznan over 2.515.1%6.64
- Bayer Leverkusen over 0.588.4%1.13
- Bayer Leverkusen over 1.563.4%1.58
- Bayer Leverkusen over 2.536.5%2.74
- Lech Poznan clean sheet11.6%8.62
- Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet26.4%3.79
- Lech Poznan win to nil8.1%12.38
- Bayer Leverkusen win to nil22.8%4.38
Handicap
- Lech Poznan −1.59.7%10.27
- Lech Poznan −2.53.3%30.49
- Bayer Leverkusen +1.590.3%1.11
- Bayer Leverkusen +2.596.7%1.03
- Bayer Leverkusen −1.534.4%2.91
- Lech Poznan +1.565.6%1.52
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored18
Favourite won61.1%
Avg chance given to result44.8%
1X2 Brier0.505
Over 2.5 called right61.1%
BTTS called right38.9%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 39.1% | 25.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 44.6% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 54.9% | 80.0% |
| 60–70% | 2 | 65.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 18 of 18 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5048 | 0.5646 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.8% | 44.3% |
| Favourite won | 61.1% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 18 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Plzen 0–3 Union St. Gilloise37·24·38
- ✓Besiktas 4–1 Marseille47·23·29
- ✓Real Sociedad 1–2 Bournemouth25·23·53
- ✓Juventus 5–0 NEC Nijmegen68·18·14
- ✗Lillestrom 1–2 Torreense47·24·28
- ✗Celtic 1–3 Ferencvarosi TC42·24·34
- ✓Crystal Palace 4–0 Lech Poznan57·21·22
- ✗OFI 2–0 1899 Hoffenheim21·21·58
- ✓Levski Sofia 0–1 Red Bull Salzburg33·25·42
- ✓Sunderland 1–0 AZ Alkmaar48·24·28
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 18 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.