Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 17:45 Enea Stadion, Poznań

Lech Poznan 35th · 0 pts · 1 played L

0–4Full time

Bayer Leverkusen 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.

Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lech Poznan. Lech Poznan were without A. Sayyadmanesh and A. Gholizadeh. Lech Poznan had 27.9 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 5.1 and had to travel 701 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel701 kmRest days27.9 · 5.1Matches / 14d0 · 1

Lech Poznan23%

Draw21%

Bayer Leverkusen56%

Expected goals 1.33 – 2.15

Lech Poznan21%

Draw23%

Bayer Leverkusen56%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.80

Lech Poznan24%

Draw21%

Bayer Leverkusen55%

Expected goals 1.34 – 2.13

Lech Poznan17%

Draw18%

Bayer Leverkusen64%

Expected goals 1.19 – 2.41

Lech Poznan23%

Draw21%

Bayer Leverkusen55%

Expected goals 1.28 – 2.06

Over 2.5 68% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–2

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Poznań)

12°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 72%

Referee · SerbiaMilos Milanovic

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.50
Matches 6

Team strength

Lech Poznan

Bayer Leverkusen

36 L90 StrengthIn forecast 77

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 79

35 AttackIn forecast 87

23 DefenceIn forecast 79

— Form indexContext 88

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lech Poznan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack+17%

Defense risk−15%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lech Poznan

Bayer Leverkusen

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 2.24

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

+1.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

80% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.57 ShotsContext 18.20

6.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

39% On target shareContext 34%

10.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.50

63% Box shareContext 73%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.67

11.29 Shots allowedContext 13.80

3.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.44

2.80 BlocksContext 3.70

2.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

50% Save rateContext 65%

57% PossessionIn forecast 57%

489 PassesContext 534

411 Accurate passesContext 467

84% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.74 Team ratingContext 7.07

10.20 FoulsContext 10.30

13.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.80

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lech Poznan L

Rest27.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 42 · 0 pts vs 0.9 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L17 SepA · Crystal Palace0–40.9 xPts

Bayer Leverkusen WDWWW

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel701 km297 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 88 · 13 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected

W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts
D12 SepA · FC Augsburg2–21.5 xPts
W5 SepH · Union Berlin4–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lech Poznan	Bayer Leverkusen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	27.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep	5.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 10 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	701 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	297 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lech Poznan Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Lis(G)

15M. Gurgul 27W. Mońka 72M. Skrzypczak 2Joel Pereira

43A. Kozubal 5K. Berggren

14E. Bengtsson 9M. Ishak 10J. Wålemark

77L. Palma

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Bayer Leverkusen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Flekken(G)

3Miguel Gutiérrez 12E. Tapsoba 5L. Badé 17Lucas Vázquez

24Aleix García 6E. Fernández

30I. Maza 10M. Tillman 23N. Tella

11M. Terrier

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lech Poznan Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −18.4% · Defence line −7.4% of weighted minutes

ATT A. Sayyadmanesh Starter 6.50 Att −13.0%
MID A. Gholizadeh Starter 7.18 Att −4.6% Def −3.4%
DEF R. Gumny Rotation 6.53 Def −2.7%
MID R. Murawski Rotation 6.37 Att −0.7% Def −0.6%
DEF João Moutinho Depth 6.33 Def −0.4%
DEF A. Douglas Depth 6.72 Def −0.3%

Bayer Leverkusen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −5.0% · Defence line −3.6% of weighted minutes

MID Christian Kofane Rotation 6.62 Att −2.3% Def −1.6%
MID J. Hofmann Rotation 6.65 Att −1.5% Def −1.0%
MID Montrell Amare Culbreath Rotation 6.76 Att −1.1% Def −0.7%
DEF G. Doué Depth 6.20 Def −0.3%
MID E. Ben Seghir Depth 6.79 Att −0.1% Def −0.1%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): V. Boniface, T. Oermann, K. Eichhorn

Total impact vs full squads

Lech Poznan-0.6 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Bayer Leverkusen+0.8 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Lech Poznan · Home No home games yet this season.

Bayer Leverkusen · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Lech Poznan	Bayer Leverkusen	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	2.00
Conceded per game	4.00	0.00
Match goals	4.00	2.00	3.49
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	68%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	65%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Lech Poznan	Bayer Leverkusen	Forecast
Scored per game	2.71	2.40
Conceded per game	1.43	1.40
Match goals	4.14	3.80	3.49
Over 1.5	86%	100%
Over 2.5	86%	70%	68%
Over 3.5	71%	60%
Both teams scored	29%	70%	65%
Clean sheets	43%	30%
Failed to score	29%	0%
Games	7	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lech Poznan	Bayer Leverkusen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	6.00
Corners conceded	6.00	2.00
Match total	11.00	8.00	10.69
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	0.00
Opponent cards	0.00	0.00
Match total	2.00	0.00	3.38
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Lech Poznan	Bayer Leverkusen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	7.22
Corners conceded	4.40	3.44
Match total	10.90	10.66	10.69
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.30
Opponent cards	2.50	2.00
Match total	4.30	3.30	3.38
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Milos Milanovic Serbia · 6 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.83league 3.28

Red cards0.00league 0.11

Cards 5+50%league 39%

Fouls22.8league 25.2

Penalties0.50league 0.17

Home wins33%league 44%

Lech Poznan

No previous matches with this referee.

Bayer Leverkusen

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.