Leeds vs Brentford – 30 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 30 · 14:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

Leeds 10th · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–1Full time

Brentford 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Brentford. Leeds had 8 days of rest, Brentford 7.9 and had to travel 270 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel270 kmRest days8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Leeds39%

Draw25%

Brentford36%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.37

Leeds42%

Draw26%

Brentford32%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.23

Leeds40%

Draw25%

Brentford35%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.36

Leeds32%

Draw25%

Brentford43%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.54

Leeds40%

Draw25%

Brentford36%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.40

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

21°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 53%

RefereeTony Harrington

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 85

Team strength

Leeds

Brentford

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 75

73 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

69 AttackIn forecast 73

77 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Leeds

Brentford

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.81

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.41

70% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.60 ShotsContext 12.70

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

33% On target shareContext 30%

8.22 Shots in the boxContext 9.50

62% Box shareContext 73%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.17

13.40 Shots allowedContext 15.00

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.78

4.10 BlocksContext 5.50

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.22

71% Save rateContext 73%

46% PossessionIn forecast 48%

377 PassesContext 395

290 Accurate passesContext 313

77% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.95

10.70 FoulsContext 9.90

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds W

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km195 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 69 · 3 pts vs 0.8 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

W22 AugA · Nottingham Forest1–01.1 xPts

Brentford W

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel270 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 65 · 3 pts vs 1.3 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected

W22 AugH · Tottenham3–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Leeds	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Premier League 2026-2027, 22 Aug	7.9Premier League 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	270 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	195 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	6	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1J. Trafford(G)

5T. Muharemović 15J. Bijol 6J. Rodon

24J. Justin 18A. Stach 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle

19N. Okafor 11B. Aaronson

9D. Calvert-Lewin

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

23K. Lewis-Potter 22N. Collins 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

27V. Janelt 18M. Sangaré

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19J. Anthony

9Thiago

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Leeds Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Leeds-0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Brentford+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home No home games yet this season.

Brentford · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Leeds wins4 draws1 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.17 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 33%

21 Mar 2026Leeds0–0Brentford
14 Dec 2025Brentford1–1Leeds
22 Jan 2023Leeds0–0Brentford
3 Sep 2022Brentford5–2Leeds
22 May 2022Brentford1–2Leeds
5 Dec 2021Leeds2–2Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Leeds	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	3.00
Conceded per game	0.00	0.00
Match goals	1.00	3.00	2.83
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	57%
Clean sheets	100%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Leeds	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.40
Conceded per game	0.80	1.20
Match goals	2.10	2.60	2.83
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	54%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Leeds	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	7.00
Corners conceded	3.00	3.00
Match total	5.00	10.00	9.50
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	3.00	2.00	4.07
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Leeds	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	4.40
Corners conceded	7.78	6.10
Match total	11.56	10.50	9.50
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.40
Opponent cards	1.80	2.40
Match total	3.70	3.80	4.07
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Tony Harrington 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.60league 3.80

Red cards0.13league 0.07

Cards 5+28%league 40%

Fouls21.2league 23.5

Penalties0.26league 0.20

Home wins41%league 47%

Leeds4 with this referee

Record2-2-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8 Pens for · against2 · 0

D28 Dec 25A · Sunderland1–10
W22 Apr 24A · Middlesbrough4–31
W5 Nov 22H · Bournemouth4–32
D13 Aug 22A · Southampton2–23

Brentford3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

L3 Dec 25A · Arsenal0–21
W23 Aug 25H · Aston Villa1–01
W26 Jan 25A · Crystal Palace2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.