Premier League Gameweek 28 Sat, Feb 28 2026 · 17:30 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
Leeds
0–1 Full time · HT 0–1 xG 1.49 – 2.00
Manchester City
  • 45’ A. Semenyo
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Semenyo goal decides it for Manchester City

Manchester City entered as favourites and won 1–0 through a Semenyo goal. Manchester City finished with the higher xG (2.00 vs 1.49). On the chances created, Leeds deserved more: 1.1 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Leeds26%
Draw24%
Manchester City ✓50%

Model vs reality

Leeds goals
0
Model 1.24 · xG 1.49
Manchester City goals
1
Model 1.78 · xG 2.00
Total goals
1
Model 3.02 · xG 3.49
Score 0–1
8%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 58%
Both scored
No
Model 60%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchK. DarlowLeeds
8.3
  • RefereePeter Bankes
  • VenueElland Road
  • Table before kick-offLeeds 15th · Manchester City 2nd

Timeline

  1. A. Semenyo 0–1Assist R. Aït-Nouri
    45’
  2. Half time · 0–1
  3. ⇄ L. NmechaFor B. Aaronson
    65’
  4. ⇄ SavinhoFor O. Marmoush
    68’
  5. ⇄ T. ReijndersFor N. O'Reilly
    70’
  6. ⇄ D. GnontoFor I. Gruev
    75’
  7. ⇄ D. JamesFor J. Bogle
    76’
  8. G. DonnarummaYellow card · Argument
    85’
  9. ⇄ J. BijolFor J. Rodon
    87’
  10. ⇄ J. PiroeFor J. Justin
    87’
  11. ⇄ N. AkéFor M. Cherki
    88’
  12. SavinhoYellow card · Foul
    90+2’
  13. R. Aït-NouriYellow card · Time wasting
    90+2’
  14. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

Leeds14 shots · 7 in box, 7 outside
Manchester City14 shots · 11 in box, 3 outside
LeedsManchester City
33% Possession 67%
1.49 Expected goals (xG) 2.00
1.08 Expected points (xPts) 1.70
14 Shots 14
2 Shots on target 5
7 Shots off target 5
5 Blocked shots 4
7 Shots inside the box 11
7 Shots outside the box 3
311 Passes 655
74% Pass accuracy 90%
5 Corners 3
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
10 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 4
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
6.77 Team rating 7.44

Line-ups

Leeds 5-4-1

268.3★ K. Darlow(G)
36.5 G. Gudmundsson 56.9 P. Struijk 66.3 J. Rodon ↓87’ 247.0 J. Justin ↓87’ 26.6 J. Bogle ↓76’
116.2 B. Aaronson ↓65’ 446.2 I. Gruev ↓75’ 47.0 E. Ampadu 186.9 A. Stach
96.5 D. Calvert-Lewin
  • 26K. Darlow (G) ★8.3
  • 3G. Gudmundsson6.5
  • 5P. Struijk6.9
  • 6J. Rodon↓87’6.3
  • 24J. Justin↓87’7.0
  • 2J. Bogle↓76’6.6
  • 11B. Aaronson↓65’6.2
  • 44I. Gruev↓75’6.2
  • 4E. Ampadu7.0
  • 18A. Stach6.9
  • 9D. Calvert-Lewin6.5

Substitutes used

  • 7D. James↑76’6.7
  • 15J. Bijol↑87’6.7
  • 14L. Nmecha↑65’6.3
  • 10J. Piroe↑87’6.3
  • 29D. Gnonto↑75’6.3

Unused: Lucas Perri, S. Bornauw, S. Longstaff, A. Tanaka

Manchester City 4-1-3-2

257.6 G. Donnarumma(G)
218.2 R. Aït-Nouri A 157.9 A. Guéhi 38.2 Rúben Dias 277.9 M. Nunes
167.9 Rodri
337.5 N. O'Reilly ↓70’ 206.3 Bernardo Silva 106.7 M. Cherki ↓88’
76.5 O. Marmoush ↓68’ 427.3 A. Semenyo
  • 25G. Donnarumma (G)7.6
  • 21R. Aït-NouriA8.2
  • 15A. Guéhi7.9
  • 3Rúben Dias8.2
  • 27M. Nunes7.9
  • 16Rodri7.9
  • 33N. O'Reilly↓70’7.5
  • 20Bernardo Silva6.3
  • 10M. Cherki↓88’6.7
  • 7O. Marmoush↓68’6.5
  • 42A. Semenyo7.3

Substitutes used

  • 4T. Reijnders↑70’7.2
  • 6N. Aké↑88’6.9
  • 26Savinho↑68’6.3

Unused: J. Trafford, J. Doku, J. Stones, P. Foden, Nico González, A. Khusanov

Player stats

Top rated
K. DarlowLeeds8.3
2nd
R. Aït-NouriManchester City8.2
3rd
Rúben DiasManchester City8.2

Leeds

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
K. Darlow G 90 0 0 4 sv 0 58% 31 0 0 0/0 0/0 8.3
G. Gudmundsson D 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 72% 25 2 2 0/3 1/5 6.5
P. Struijk D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 85% 48 0 2 0/0 2/0 6.9
J. Rodon D 87 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 33 0 1 0/0 0/0 6.3
J. Justin D 87 0 0 1 (1) 0 73% 22 1 0 0/0 1/0 7.0
J. Bogle D 76 0 0 0 (0) 1 75% 12 1 2 0/0 1/1 6.6
B. Aaronson M 65 0 0 2 (1) 1 42% 12 3 0 0/5 0/0 6.2
I. Gruev M 75 0 0 0 (0) 0 76% 17 0 1 0/0 3/1 6.2
E. Ampadu D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 73% 44 4 0 0/1 1/0 7.0
A. Stach M 90 0 0 0 (0) 4 72% 29 3 1 1/2 0/1 6.9
D. Calvert-Lewin F 90 0 0 3 (0) 1 50% 12 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
D. James M 14 0 0 0 (0) 0 80% 5 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
J. Bijol D 3 0 0 1 (0) 0 75% 8 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
L. Nmecha F 25 0 0 0 (0) 0 75% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
J. Piroe F 3 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 3 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
D. Gnonto F 15 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 6 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.3

Manchester City

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
G. Donnarumma G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 75% 28 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.6
R. Aït-Nouri D 90 0 1 1 (0) 1 83% 54 2 0 6/6 0/0 8.2
A. Guéhi D 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 95% 82 2 0 0/0 0/1 7.9
Rúben Dias D 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 93% 67 3 0 2/3 0/0 8.2
M. Nunes M 90 0 0 0 (0) 4 86% 64 2 0 3/4 1/0 7.9
Rodri M 90 0 0 1 (0) 1 92% 124 1 0 0/1 1/4 7.9
N. O'Reilly M 70 0 0 2 (2) 0 90% 30 2 0 1/2 0/0 7.5
Bernardo Silva M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 87 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
M. Cherki M 88 0 0 0 (0) 2 91% 82 1 0 1/3 3/2 6.7
O. Marmoush F 68 0 0 3 (1) 0 90% 10 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.5
A. Semenyo F 90 1 0 1 (1) 1 81% 16 1 0 2/2 1/2 7.3
T. Reijnders M 20 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 7 0 0 1/1 0/1 7.2
N. Aké D 2 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 2 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
Savinho F 22 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 2 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.3

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.