Leeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Manchester City were slight favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 70). Manchester City usually keep the ball (60% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Leeds had 7.1 days of rest, Manchester City 6.9 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days7.1 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Leeds26%
Draw24%
Manchester City50%
Leeds26%
Draw26%
Manchester City48%
Leeds26%
Draw24%
Manchester City50%
Leeds20%
Draw22%
Manchester City58%
Leeds27%
Draw26%
Manchester City48%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
No weather data yet
RefereePeter Bankes
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 119
Team strength
Leeds
Manchester City
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
89
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
91
69
AttackIn forecast
92
77
DefenceIn forecast
82
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeedsManchester City
1.37
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.07
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.93
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
74%
Scored inContext
85%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
41%
12.26
ShotsContext
14.22
3.96
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.15
32%
On target shareContext
36%
8.48
Shots in the boxContext
10.37
67%
Box shareContext
73%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.30
OffsidesContext
1.65
12.48
Shots allowedContext
9.96
4.19
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
3.84
BlocksContext
2.92
2.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
63%
Save rateContext
74%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
397
PassesContext
570
318
Accurate passesContext
502
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.10
10.37
FoulsContext
10.19
11.19
Fouls sufferedContext
11.44
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.87
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
14.70
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
38%
On target shareContext
36%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
71%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
2.86
OffsidesContext
1.56
14.20
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.20
BlocksContext
2.75
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
62%
Save rateContext
71%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
382
PassesContext
598
299
Accurate passesContext
534
78%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.08
10.20
FoulsContext
10.10
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km296 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester City
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel57 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Manchester City |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 296 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.1 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Confirmed XI
26K. Darlow(G)
3G. Gudmundsson
5P. Struijk
6J. Rodon
24J. Justin
2J. Bogle
11B. Aaronson
44I. Gruev
4E. Ampadu
18A. Stach
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
21R. Aït-Nouri
15A. Guéhi
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
16Rodri
33N. O'Reilly
20Bernardo Silva
10M. Cherki
7O. Marmoush
42A. Semenyo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester City
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Manchester City-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
1.69points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-3
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.38
Manchester City · Away
1.62points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-4
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.23
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Leeds | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Chelsea | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–1 HL 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–4 HL 0–5 A | D 1–1 A |
| Everton | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Fulham | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | W 3–0 HW 5–4 A |
| Newcastle | L 3–4 AD 0–0 H | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Liverpool | D 0–0 AD 3–3 H | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H |
| Sunderland | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 4–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Brentford | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Brighton | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| West Ham | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Burnley | L 0–2 A | W 5–1 H |
| Tottenham | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Wolves | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A |
| Points | 31 of 78 · 1.19 per game | 53 of 78 · 2.04 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Leeds wins1 draws5 Manchester City wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.586%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets0% · 29%
- 29 Nov 2025Manchester City3–2Leeds
- 6 May 2023Manchester City2–1Leeds
- 28 Dec 2022Leeds1–3Manchester City
- 30 Apr 2022Leeds0–4Manchester City
- 14 Dec 2021Manchester City7–0Leeds
- 10 Apr 2021Manchester City1–2Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.37 | 2.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.93 | |
| Match goals | 3.07 | 3.00 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 63% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 44% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 48% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 41% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 15% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Leeds | Manchester City | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.40 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 5.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.68 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.24 | 9.38 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 16/25 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 12/25 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 8/25 | 31% 8/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.11 | |
| Match total | 3.37 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 11/27 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 9/27 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Leeds | Manchester City | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 8.80 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.50 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Peter Bankes 119 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.76
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+44%league 39%
Fouls21.5league 21.5
Penalties0.14league 0.21
Home wins51%league 42%
Leeds10 with this referee
Record3-2-5
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W6 Feb 26H · Nottingham Forest3–11
- L29 Nov 25A · Manchester City2–31
- D30 Aug 25H · Newcastle0–01
- L21 May 23A · West Ham1–33
- L22 Apr 23A · Fulham1–24
Manchester City9 with this referee
Record4-1-4
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W29 Nov 25H · Leeds3–24
- L23 Aug 25H · Tottenham0–21
- W2 May 25H · Wolves1–00
- L2 Feb 25A · Arsenal1–50
- L21 Dec 24A · Aston Villa1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Leeds27 games · scored 37 · conceded 46
5
4
0-15
3
7
16-30
11
4
31-45
5
9
46-60
7
8
61-75
6
14
76-90
Manchester City27 games · scored 56 · conceded 25
8
0-15
8
3
16-30
16
4
31-45
6
5
46-60
10
8
61-75
8
5
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 25 · conceded 11
5
0-15
5
3
16-30
6
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
