Leeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 65). Leeds had 7 days of rest, Newcastle 4.9 and had to travel 131 km.
Away travel131 kmRest days7 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Leeds35%
Draw26%
Newcastle39%
Leeds35%
Draw27%
Newcastle38%
Leeds35%
Draw26%
Newcastle39%
Leeds28%
Draw25%
Newcastle46%
Leeds35%
Draw27%
Newcastle38%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
No weather data yet
RefereePeter Bankes
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 102
Team strength
Leeds
Newcastle
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
78
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
69
AttackIn forecast
61
77
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNewcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeedsNewcastle
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.45
-0.65
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
50%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.00
ShotsContext
13.00
2.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
17%
On target shareContext
23%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
62%
Box shareContext
68%
4%
ConversionContext
8%
—
OffsidesContext
—
12.50
Shots allowedContext
4.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.50
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
100%
Save rateContext
57%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
386
PassesContext
350
310
Accurate passesContext
273
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.43
Team ratingContext
6.82
8.50
FoulsContext
14.00
8.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.67
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.80
ShotsContext
14.70
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
37%
On target shareContext
33%
10.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
72%
Box shareContext
69%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.57
8.10
Shots allowedContext
9.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.14
BlocksContext
2.78
1.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
81%
Save rateContext
72%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
538
PassesContext
440
463
Accurate passesContext
371
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.09
Team ratingContext
7.04
8.40
FoulsContext
10.30
10.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km544 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Newcastle
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel131 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Newcastle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 4.9Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 131 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 544 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Confirmed XI
1Lucas Perri(G)
3G. Gudmundsson
5P. Struijk
6J. Rodon
2J. Bogle
18A. Stach
44I. Gruev
8S. Longstaff
29D. Gnonto
14L. Nmecha
7D. James
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
1N. Pope(G)
21V. Livramento
33D. Burn
4S. Botman
5F. Schär
2K. Trippier
41J. Ramsey
8S. Tonali
39Bruno Guimarães
18W. Osula
23J. Murphy
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Absences are shown before kick-off
Newcastle
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Newcastle+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Newcastle · Away
1.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Leeds wins3 draws1 Newcastle wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.17
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 33%
- 13 May 2023Leeds2–2Newcastle
- 31 Dec 2022Newcastle0–0Leeds
- 22 Jan 2022Leeds0–1Newcastle
- 17 Sep 2021Newcastle1–1Leeds
- 26 Jan 2021Newcastle1–2Leeds
- 16 Dec 2020Leeds5–2Newcastle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Leeds | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.50 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 8.50 | 8.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 4.50 | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Leeds | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.63 | 6.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.63 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.26 | 10.90 | 8.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.60 | 3.63 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Peter Bankes 102 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.08league 3.60
Red cards0.10league 0.12
Cards 5+44%league 44%
Fouls21.3league 22.4
Penalties0.14league 0.28
Home wins47%league 52%
Leeds7 with this referee
Record2-1-4
Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 May 23A · West Ham1–33
- L22 Apr 23A · Fulham1–24
- W25 Feb 23H · Southampton1–02
- D22 Jan 23H · Brentford0–02
- L20 Oct 22A · Leicester0–21
Newcastle11 with this referee
Record2-4-5
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 2
- W2 Apr 25H · Brentford2–11
- L19 Oct 24H · Brighton0–12
- L21 Sep 24A · Fulham1–30
- D8 Oct 23A · West Ham2–23
- D4 Feb 23H · West Ham1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Leeds2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Newcastle2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
6
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
61-75
5
2
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
