Premier League Gameweek 25 Fri, Feb 6 2026 · 20:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
Leeds
3–1 Full time · HT 2–0 xG 2.50 – 1.33
Nottingham Forest
  • J. Bogle 26’
  • N. Okafor 30’
  • D. Calvert-Lewin 49’
  • 86’ L. Lucca
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Leeds beat Nottingham Forest

Leeds entered as narrow favourites and won 3–1 through goals from Bogle, Okafor and Calvert-Lewin. Nottingham Forest replied through a Lucca goal. Leeds finished with the higher xG (2.50 vs 1.33).

Leeds ✓44%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest30%

Model vs reality

Leeds goals
3
Model 1.52 · xG 2.50
Nottingham Forest goals
1
Model 1.21 · xG 1.33
Total goals
4
Model 2.73 · xG 3.83
Score 3–1
5%
Most likely 1–1 (13%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 51%
Both scored
Yes
Model 55%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchN. OkaforLeeds · 1 goal
8.3
  • RefereePeter Bankes
  • VenueElland Road
  • Table before kick-offLeeds 16th · Nottingham Forest 17th

Timeline

  1. J. Bogle 1–0Assist I. Gruev
    26’
  2. N. Okafor 2–0Assist J. Justin
    30’
  3. Half time · 2–0
  4. D. Calvert-Lewin 3–0Assist I. Gruev
    49’
  5. ⇄ L. LuccaFor Igor Jesus
    54’
  6. ⇄ O. HutchinsonFor N. Domínguez
    54’
  7. N. OkaforYellow card · Foul
    61’
  8. I. SangaréYellow card · Foul
    62’
  9. ⇄ R. YatesFor M. Gibbs-White
    67’
  10. ⇄ D. NdoyeFor C. Hudson-Odoi
    67’
  11. ⇄ L. NetzFor Z. Abbott
    76’
  12. ⇄ D. JamesFor B. Aaronson
    78’
  13. ⇄ S. LongstaffFor N. Okafor
    82’
  14. L. Lucca 3–1Assist O. Hutchinson
    86’
  15. ⇄ S. BornauwFor J. Bogle
    90+6’
  16. Full time · 3–1

Team stats

Leeds14 shots · 13 in box, 1 outside
Nottingham Forest16 shots · 9 in box, 7 outside
LeedsNottingham Forest
56% Possession 44%
2.50 Expected goals (xG) 1.33
2.07 Expected points (xPts) 0.75
14 Shots 16
5 Shots on target 6
3 Shots off target 6
6 Blocked shots 4
13 Shots inside the box 9
1 Shots outside the box 7
477 Passes 350
83% Pass accuracy 78%
5 Corners 10
5 Goalkeeper saves 2
9 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 4
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
7.44 Team rating 6.53

Line-ups

Leeds 3-4-2-1

268.2 K. Darlow(G)
57.3 P. Struijk 66.9 J. Rodon 247.6 J. Justin A
37.5 G. Gudmundsson 448.2 I. Gruev AA 47.2 E. Ampadu 27.7 J. Bogle ↓90’
198.3★ N. Okafor ↓82’ 116.7 B. Aaronson ↓78’
96.5 D. Calvert-Lewin
  • 26K. Darlow (G)8.2
  • 5P. Struijk7.3
  • 6J. Rodon6.9
  • 24J. JustinA7.6
  • 3G. Gudmundsson7.5
  • 44I. GruevA×28.2
  • 4E. Ampadu7.2
  • 2J. Bogle↓90’7.7
  • 19N. Okafor ★↓82’8.3
  • 11B. Aaronson↓78’6.7
  • 9D. Calvert-Lewin6.5

Substitutes used

  • 7D. James↑78’6.2
  • 23S. Bornauw↑90’
  • 8S. Longstaff↑82’6.2

Unused: Lucas Perri, J. Bijol, L. Nmecha, J. Piroe, A. Tanaka, D. Gnonto

Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1

276.3 S. Ortega(G)
346.3 T. Aina 46.3 Morato 316.3 N. Milenković 446.2 Z. Abbott ↓76’
87.0 E. Anderson 66.5 I. Sangaré
76.5 C. Hudson-Odoi ↓67’ 106.6 M. Gibbs-White ↓67’ 166.7 N. Domínguez ↓54’
196.5 Igor Jesus ↓54’
  • 27S. Ortega (G)6.3
  • 34T. Aina6.3
  • 4Morato6.3
  • 31N. Milenković6.3
  • 44Z. Abbott↓76’6.2
  • 8E. Anderson7.0
  • 6I. Sangaré6.5
  • 7C. Hudson-Odoi↓67’6.5
  • 10M. Gibbs-White↓67’6.6
  • 16N. Domínguez↓54’6.7
  • 19Igor Jesus↓54’6.5

Substitutes used

  • 22R. Yates↑67’6.3
  • 25L. Netz↑76’6.6
  • 20L. Lucca↑54’7.5
  • 14D. Ndoye↑67’6.5
  • 21O. HutchinsonA↑54’7.2

Unused: A. Gunn, T. Awoniyi, J. McAtee, Jair

Player stats

Top rated
N. OkaforLeeds8.3
2nd
K. DarlowLeeds8.2
3rd
I. GruevLeeds8.2

Leeds

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
K. Darlow G 90 0 0 5 sv 0 70% 40 0 0 0/0 0/0 8.2
P. Struijk D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 91% 75 1 0 0/0 2/1 7.3
J. Rodon D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 74 2 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
J. Justin D 90 0 1 2 (1) 4 78% 58 2 2 1/1 1/2 7.6
G. Gudmundsson D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 71% 31 5 0 5/6 2/1 7.5
I. Gruev M 90 0 2 1 (1) 4 98% 45 0 1 1/1 0/1 8.2
E. Ampadu D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 78% 54 2 1 0/0 1/0 7.2
J. Bogle D 90 1 0 1 (1) 0 91% 35 5 1 0/1 1/0 7.7
N. Okafor F 82 1 0 2 (1) 0 90% 20 3 0 2/3 1/1 8.3
B. Aaronson M 78 0 0 0 (0) 1 82% 22 2 0 2/3 0/6 6.7
D. Calvert-Lewin F 90 1 0 2 (1) 0 67% 15 0 0 0/1 0/0 6.5
D. James M 12 0 0 0 (0) 0 60% 5 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2
S. Bornauw D 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 — 0 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
S. Longstaff M 8 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 3 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.2

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
S. Ortega G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 58% 26 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
T. Aina D 90 0 0 2 (0) 0 77% 30 1 0 0/2 0/1 6.3
Morato D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 82% 38 2 3 1/1 0/0 6.3
N. Milenković D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 83% 29 0 1 0/0 0/0 6.3
Z. Abbott D 76 0 0 0 (0) 0 70% 27 1 1 1/3 2/0 6.2
E. Anderson M 90 0 0 0 (0) 3 84% 67 4 1 2/4 3/0 7.0
I. Sangaré M 90 0 0 2 (1) 1 81% 32 3 2 0/1 3/1 6.5
C. Hudson-Odoi F 67 0 0 1 (1) 0 93% 14 0 0 1/2 2/0 6.5
M. Gibbs-White M 67 0 0 1 (1) 3 94% 16 0 0 3/4 1/2 6.6
N. Domínguez M 54 0 0 1 (1) 0 83% 23 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
Igor Jesus F 54 0 0 2 (1) 0 67% 9 1 0 0/1 0/1 6.5
R. Yates M 23 0 0 0 (0) 1 80% 5 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.3
L. Netz D 14 0 0 0 (0) 0 85% 13 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
L. Lucca F 36 1 0 1 (1) 0 25% 4 0 0 0/0 1/1 7.5
D. Ndoye F 23 0 0 1 (0) 2 44% 9 1 0 0/2 0/1 6.5
O. Hutchinson F 36 0 1 0 (0) 2 88% 8 0 0 2/2 0/1 7.2

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.