Leeds vs Nottingham Forest – 6 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 25 Fri, Feb 6 · 20:00 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire

Leeds 16th · 26 pts · 24 played DLWDL

3–1Full time

Nottingham Forest 17th · 26 pts · 24 played LWDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Leeds were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Leeds had 6.2 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 5.3 and had to travel 97 km.

Away travel97 kmRest days6.2 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 3

Leeds44%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest30%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.21

Leeds43%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Leeds43%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.20

Leeds36%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest37%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.36

Leeds43%

Draw27%

Nottingham Forest30%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.16

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 116

Team strength

Leeds

Nottingham Forest

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

73 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

69 AttackIn forecast 68

77 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Leeds

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Leeds

Nottingham Forest

1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.46

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.49

-0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.11

71% Scored inContext 54%

17% Clean sheetsContext 21%

12.46 ShotsContext 11.75

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.83

32% On target shareContext 31%

8.54 Shots in the boxContext 7.46

67% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.29 OffsidesContext 1.94

11.92 Shots allowedContext 12.79

4.13 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.08

3.64 BlocksContext 4.55

2.52 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.65

62% Save rateContext 63%

46% PossessionIn forecast 48%

403 PassesContext 419

322 Accurate passesContext 345

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.83

10.08 FoulsContext 10.71

11.25 Fouls sufferedContext 12.04

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 24 and 24 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.45

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.70 ShotsContext 13.60

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.11

37% On target shareContext 34%

9.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

70% Box shareContext 61%

11% ConversionContext 10%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.80

11.50 Shots allowedContext 12.30

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.20 BlocksContext 3.90

2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11

58% Save rateContext 59%

47% PossessionIn forecast 45%

403 PassesContext 420

317 Accurate passesContext 346

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.90

8.70 FoulsContext 10.70

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Leeds

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km207 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nottingham Forest

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel97 km346 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Leeds	Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 15
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Premier League 2025-2026, 31 Jan	5.3Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	97 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	207 km	346 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	4	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Leeds Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

26K. Darlow(G)

5P. Struijk 6J. Rodon 24J. Justin

3G. Gudmundsson 44I. Gruev 4E. Ampadu 2J. Bogle

19N. Okafor 11B. Aaronson

9D. Calvert-Lewin

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

27S. Ortega(G)

34T. Aina 4Morato 31N. Milenković 44Z. Abbott

8E. Anderson 6I. Sangaré

7C. Hudson-Odoi 10M. Gibbs-White 16N. Domínguez

19Igor Jesus

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Leeds Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Leeds+0.7 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Nottingham Forest-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Leeds · Home 1.58points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 5-4-3
Scored: 1.58
Conceded: 1.42

Nottingham Forest · Away 1.17points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-6
Scored: 0.92
Conceded: 1.42

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Leeds	Nottingham Forest
Arsenal	L 0–4 HL 0–5 A	D 0–0 HL 0–3 A
Everton	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 HL 0–3 A
Fulham	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
Newcastle	L 3–4 AD 0–0 H	L 0–2 A
Manchester United	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 H
Liverpool	D 0–0 AD 3–3 H	W 3–0 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 H
Crystal Palace	W 4–1 H	D 1–1 HD 1–1 A
Brentford	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 AW 3–1 H
Chelsea	W 3–1 H	L 0–3 H
Manchester City	L 2–3 A	L 1–2 H
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	L 1–3 A
Brighton	L 0–3 A	L 0–2 H
West Ham	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 AL 0–3 H
Burnley	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
Tottenham	L 1–2 H	W 3–0 H
Bournemouth	D 2–2 H	L 0–2 A
Wolves	W 3–1 A	W 1–0 A
Points	26 of 69 · 1.13 per game	23 of 69 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Leeds wins0 draws2 Nottingham Forest wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.67 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

9 Nov 2025Nottingham Forest3–1Leeds
4 Apr 2023Leeds2–1Nottingham Forest
5 Feb 2023Nottingham Forest1–0Leeds

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Leeds	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.29	1.00
Conceded per game	1.75	1.46
Match goals	3.04	2.46	2.73
Over 1.5	79%	83%
Over 2.5	58%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	42%	17%
Both teams scored	63%	38%	55%
Clean sheets	17%	21%
Failed to score	29%	46%
Games	24	24

	Leeds	Nottingham Forest	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.60	1.10
Match goals	3.10	2.20	2.73
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	51%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Leeds	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	4.82	5.33
Corners conceded	4.36	4.83
Match total	9.18	10.16	9.98
Over 8.5	64% 14/22	79% 19/24
Over 9.5	50% 11/22	67% 16/24
Over 10.5	32% 7/22	50% 12/24
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.54
Opponent cards	1.67	1.92
Match total	3.17	3.46	3.87
Over 3.5	38% 9/24	42% 10/24
Over 4.5	29% 7/24	25% 6/24

	Leeds	Nottingham Forest	League
Corners
Corners won	5.67	5.10
Corners conceded	5.78	5.30
Match total	11.45	10.40	9.98
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	89% 8/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	1.60
Opponent cards	1.50	1.60
Match total	2.60	3.20	3.87
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 116 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.09league 3.73

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+44%league 38%

Fouls21.4league 21.3

Penalties0.15league 0.20

Home wins51%league 45%

Leeds9 with this referee

Record2-2-5 Cards · opp.2.2 · 1.9 Pens for · against0 · 0

L29 Nov 25A · Manchester City2–31
D30 Aug 25H · Newcastle0–01
L21 May 23A · West Ham1–33
L22 Apr 23A · Fulham1–24
W25 Feb 23H · Southampton1–02

Nottingham Forest10 with this referee

Record7-1-2 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 2

L5 Oct 25A · Newcastle0–24
W17 Aug 25H · Brentford3–11
W21 Apr 25A · Tottenham2–14
W6 Jan 25A · Wolves3–02
W2 Nov 24H · West Ham3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.