Premier League Gameweek 29 Tue, Mar 3 2026 · 19:30 Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
Leeds
0–1 Full time · HT 0–0 xG 1.15 – 0.86
Sunderland
  • 70’ (P) M. Diarra
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Diarra goal decides it for Sunderland

Leeds entered as favourites, but Sunderland won 1–0 through a Diarra goal. The chances were even, with xG of 1.15 and 0.86. On the chances created, Leeds deserved more: 1.6 expected points against the 0 points they took.

Leeds56%
Draw23%
Sunderland ✓20%

Model vs reality

Leeds goals
0
Model 1.90 · xG 1.15
Sunderland goals
1
Model 1.06 · xG 0.86
Total goals
1
Model 2.96 · xG 2.01
Score 0–1
5%
Most likely 1–1 (11%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 57%
Both scored
No
Model 56%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchM. DiarraSunderland · 1 goal
7.7
  • RefereeStuart Attwell
  • VenueElland Road
  • Table before kick-offLeeds 15th · Sunderland 12th

Timeline

  1. L. O'NienYellow card · Time wasting
    45+2’
  2. Half time · 0–0
  3. ⇄ W. IsidorFor Eliezer Mayenda
    55’
  4. ⇄ G. XhakaFor L. Geertruida
    56’
  5. M. DiarraYellow card · Persistent fouling
    58’
  6. ⇄ L. NmechaFor I. Gruev
    62’
  7. O. AldereteYellow card · Foul
    63’
  8. VAR J. RodonGoal cancelled
    65’
  9. VAR W. IsidorPenalty confirmed
    67’
  10. M. Diarra (pen) 0–1
    70’
  11. ⇄ D. JamesFor J. Justin
    74’
  12. ⇄ D. GnontoFor B. Aaronson
    74’
  13. ⇄ J. BijolFor G. Gudmundsson
    84’
  14. ⇄ J. PiroeFor J. Bogle
    84’
  15. ⇄ B. TraoréFor N. Angulo
    88’
  16. D. GnontoYellow card · Foul
    90’
  17. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

Leeds18 shots · 12 in box, 6 outside
Sunderland3 shots · 3 in box
LeedsSunderland
70% Possession 30%
1.15 Expected goals (xG) 0.86
1.57 Expected points (xPts) 1.12
18 Shots 3
4 Shots on target 1
5 Shots off target 1
9 Blocked shots 2
12 Shots inside the box 3
6 Shots outside the box 0
550 Passes 233
83% Pass accuracy 61%
9 Corners 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
15 Fouls 19
2 Offsides 5
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
6.69 Team rating 6.91

Line-ups

Leeds 4-5-1

266.6 K. Darlow(G)
36.7 G. Gudmundsson ↓84’ 56.5 P. Struijk 66.6 J. Rodon 246.6 J. Justin ↓74’
116.7 B. Aaronson ↓74’ 446.3 I. Gruev ↓62’ 47.5 E. Ampadu 187.3 A. Stach 26.0 J. Bogle ↓84’
96.7 D. Calvert-Lewin
  • 26K. Darlow (G)6.6
  • 3G. Gudmundsson↓84’6.7
  • 5P. Struijk6.5
  • 6J. Rodon6.6
  • 24J. Justin↓74’6.6
  • 11B. Aaronson↓74’6.7
  • 44I. Gruev↓62’6.3
  • 4E. Ampadu7.5
  • 18A. Stach7.3
  • 2J. Bogle↓84’6.0
  • 9D. Calvert-Lewin6.7

Substitutes used

  • 7D. James↑74’6.6
  • 15J. Bijol↑84’7.2
  • 14L. Nmecha↑62’6.7
  • 10J. Piroe↑84’6.3
  • 29D. Gnonto↑74’6.3

Unused: Lucas Perri, S. Bornauw, S. Longstaff, A. Tanaka

Sunderland 4-2-3-1

317.2 M. Ellborg(G)
327.5 T. Hume 157.2 O. Alderete 56.9 D. Ballard 136.9 L. O'Nien
276.3 N. Sadiki 66.5 L. Geertruida ↓56’
286.9 E. Le Fée 197.7★ M. Diarra 106.6 N. Angulo ↓88’
126.2 Eliezer Mayenda ↓55’
  • 31M. Ellborg (G)7.2
  • 32T. Hume7.5
  • 15O. Alderete7.2
  • 5D. Ballard6.9
  • 13L. O'Nien6.9
  • 27N. Sadiki6.3
  • 6L. Geertruida↓56’6.5
  • 28E. Le Fée6.9
  • 19M. Diarra ★7.7
  • 10N. Angulo↓88’6.6
  • 12Eliezer Mayenda↓55’6.2

Substitutes used

  • 34G. Xhaka↑56’6.7
  • 25B. Traoré↑88’
  • 18W. Isidor↑55’6.3

Unused: S. Moore, H. Jones, C. Talbi, C. Rigg, Jenson Jones, M. Aleksić

Player stats

Top rated
M. DiarraSunderland7.7
2nd
E. AmpaduLeeds7.5
3rd
T. HumeSunderland7.5

Leeds

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
K. Darlow G 90 0 0 0 sv 0 70% 53 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
G. Gudmundsson D 84 0 0 1 (0) 0 74% 34 0 1 0/2 0/5 6.7
P. Struijk D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 90% 93 0 0 0/0 1/1 6.5
J. Rodon D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 90% 71 2 0 0/0 0/0 6.6
J. Justin D 74 0 0 0 (0) 0 81% 42 4 1 0/0 1/1 6.6
B. Aaronson M 74 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 21 1 0 0/2 1/4 6.7
I. Gruev M 62 0 0 0 (0) 1 89% 38 0 0 0/0 2/0 6.3
E. Ampadu D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 85% 62 3 1 1/1 2/1 7.5
A. Stach M 90 0 0 1 (1) 2 80% 41 6 1 0/1 2/2 7.3
J. Bogle D 84 0 0 2 (1) 0 79% 38 0 1 0/1 2/0 6.0
D. Calvert-Lewin F 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 75% 8 0 0 0/0 2/4 6.7
D. James M 16 0 0 0 (0) 1 80% 10 0 0 2/3 0/0 6.6
J. Bijol D 6 0 0 2 (2) 0 100% 14 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.2
L. Nmecha F 28 0 0 0 (0) 2 67% 6 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.7
J. Piroe F 6 0 0 1 (0) 1 70% 10 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
D. Gnonto F 16 0 0 1 (0) 0 89% 9 0 1 0/1 1/1 6.3

Sunderland

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Ellborg G 90 0 0 4 sv 0 32% 28 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.2
T. Hume D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 71% 31 2 1 0/0 1/3 7.5
O. Alderete D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 75% 28 1 0 0/0 5/0 7.2
D. Ballard D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 54% 24 2 1 0/0 3/1 6.9
L. O'Nien M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 48% 23 1 2 0/0 1/2 6.9
N. Sadiki M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 15 0 1 0/1 2/2 6.3
L. Geertruida D 56 0 0 0 (0) 0 77% 13 1 1 0/0 2/0 6.5
E. Le Fée M 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 86% 21 5 1 0/2 1/1 6.9
M. Diarra M 90 1 0 1 (1) 0 60% 10 1 0 0/0 2/3 7.7
N. Angulo F 88 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 6 3 0 2/3 2/1 6.6
Eliezer Mayenda F 55 0 0 0 (0) 0 40% 5 0 0 0/4 0/0 6.2
G. Xhaka M 34 0 0 0 (0) 1 75% 20 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
B. Traoré F 2 0 0 0 (0) 0 67% 3 0 0 0/0 0/0 —
W. Isidor F 35 0 0 0 (0) 0 25% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.