Leeds
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Leeds were slight favourites.
Leeds were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 51). Absences weigh more on Sunderland. Leeds had 3.1 days of rest, Sunderland 3.3 and had to travel 124 km.
Away travel124 kmRest days3.1 · 3.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Leeds56%
Draw23%
Sunderland20%
Leeds55%
Draw24%
Sunderland21%
Leeds55%
Draw24%
Sunderland21%
Leeds49%
Draw25%
Sunderland26%
Leeds56%
Draw24%
Sunderland20%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeds, West Yorkshire)
No weather data yet
RefereeStuart Attwell
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 134
Team strength
Leeds
Sunderland
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
73
Current StrengthIn forecast
55
69
AttackIn forecast
62
77
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LeedsSunderland
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.04
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
71%
Scored inContext
64%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.32
ShotsContext
9.71
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
32%
On target shareContext
33%
8.43
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
67%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.24
OffsidesContext
1.82
12.54
Shots allowedContext
14.61
4.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.52
3.85
BlocksContext
4.57
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.27
64%
Save rateContext
71%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
394
PassesContext
374
315
Accurate passesContext
296
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.36
FoulsContext
9.89
11.07
Fouls sufferedContext
10.75
1.61
Yellow cardsContext
1.96
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.57
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.58
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.40
ShotsContext
10.90
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
68%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.86
OffsidesContext
1.38
13.70
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.80
BlocksContext
4.40
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
61%
Save rateContext
53%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
384
PassesContext
418
302
Accurate passesContext
338
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.40
FoulsContext
10.90
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Leeds
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km296 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Sunderland
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel124 km933 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Leeds |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 124 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 296 km | 933 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 11.8 | 10.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Leeds
Confirmed XI
26K. Darlow(G)
3G. Gudmundsson
5P. Struijk
6J. Rodon
24J. Justin
11B. Aaronson
44I. Gruev
4E. Ampadu
18A. Stach
2J. Bogle
9D. Calvert-Lewin
Sunderland
Confirmed XI
31M. Ellborg(G)
32T. Hume
15O. Alderete
5D. Ballard
13L. O'Nien
27N. Sadiki
6L. Geertruida
28E. Le Fée
19M. Diarra
10N. Angulo
12Eliezer Mayenda
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Leeds
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Sunderland
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Leeds+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Sunderland-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Leeds · Home
1.57points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-4
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.36
Sunderland · Away
0.79points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-7
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Leeds | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 AL 1–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Chelsea | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Nottingham Forest | W 3–1 HL 1–3 A | W 1–0 A |
| Arsenal | L 0–4 HL 0–5 A | L 0–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Everton | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fulham | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Newcastle | L 3–4 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Manchester United | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Liverpool | D 0–0 AD 3–3 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 4–1 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Brentford | D 1–1 A | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Brighton | L 0–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| West Ham | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 AW 3–0 H |
| Burnley | L 0–2 A | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Tottenham | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 AW 3–2 H |
| Wolves | W 3–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 30 of 81 · 1.11 per game | 36 of 81 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Leeds wins3 draws1 Sunderland wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.540%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 40%
- 28 Dec 2025Sunderland1–1Leeds
- 17 Feb 2025Leeds2–1Sunderland
- 4 Oct 2024Sunderland2–2Leeds
- 9 Apr 2024Leeds0–0Sunderland
- 12 Dec 2023Sunderland1–0Leeds
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Leeds | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 1.04 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.25 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 46% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 36% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Leeds | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Leeds | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.58 | 3.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.62 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.46 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 16/26 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 12/26 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 8/26 | 29% 8/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.61 | 2.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.82 | |
| Match total | 3.36 | 3.86 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 11/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 9/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Leeds | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 8.44 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.30 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stuart Attwell 134 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.97league 3.77
Red cards0.13league 0.12
Cards 5+45%league 39%
Fouls20.9league 21.5
Penalties0.19league 0.21
Home wins49%league 43%
Leeds8 with this referee
Record4-1-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L31 Jan 26H · Arsenal0–41
- W24 Oct 25H · West Ham2–13
- W17 Feb 25H · Sunderland2–13
- L28 Dec 22H · Manchester City1–33
- D2 Oct 22H · Aston Villa0–05
Sunderland5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.3.4 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D4 Jan 26A · Tottenham1–13
- D3 Dec 25A · Liverpool1–11
- L4 Oct 25A · Manchester United0–24
- L17 Feb 25A · Leeds1–26
- L9 Mar 24A · Southampton2–43
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Leeds28 games · scored 37 · conceded 47
5
4
0-15
3
7
16-30
11
5
31-45
5
9
46-60
7
8
61-75
6
14
76-90
Sunderland28 games · scored 29 · conceded 34
1
6
0-15
5
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
8
9
61-75
8
6
76-90
Leeds10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
