Lens
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lens70.2%fair odds 1.43
Draw19.2%fair odds 5.21
Angers10.6%fair odds 9.40
Expected goals2.17 – 0.73total 2.90
Likeliest score2–013.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Angers
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lens ↓ · Angers → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lens goals, columns Angers goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.0%7.70
- 1–011.5%8.70
- 2–19.4%10.59
- 3–09.4%10.62
- 1–19.1%10.93
- 3–16.8%14.61
- 0–06.0%16.79
- 4–05.1%19.54
- 4–13.7%26.88
- 0–13.5%28.29
Winning margin
25.0%
Lens by 3+
fair 3.99
21.3%
Lens by 2
fair 4.69
23.8%
Lens by 1
fair 4.21
19.2%
Draw
fair 5.21
7.6%
Angers by 1
fair 13.09
2.4%
Angers by 2
fair 41.95
0.6%
Angers by 3+
fair 162.61
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Lens goals
11%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
18%4+
Angers goals
48%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens win | 70.2% | 70.1% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 19.2% | 19.1% | +0.1 pp |
| Angers win | 10.6% | 10.8% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 56.3% | -0.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.2% | 47.1% | -0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Lens | 2.17 | 2.19 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Angers | 0.73 | 0.74 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lens win70.2%1.43
- Draw19.2%5.21
- Angers win10.6%9.40
- Double chance Lens or draw89.4%1.12
- Double chance Lens or Angers80.8%1.24
- Double chance Angers or draw29.8%3.35
- Draw no bet Lens86.8%1.15
- Draw no bet Angers13.2%7.59
Goals
- Over 0.594.0%1.06
- Over 1.579.0%1.27
- Over 2.555.4%1.80
- Over 3.533.1%3.02
- Over 4.516.8%5.94
- Under 1.521.0%4.77
- Under 2.544.6%2.24
- Under 3.566.9%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes46.2%2.16
- No53.8%1.86
- Yes and over 2.537.1%2.70
- Lens win and yes27.8%3.60
- Draw and yes13.2%7.55
- Angers win and yes5.2%19.13
Team goals
- Lens over 0.588.6%1.13
- Lens over 1.563.9%1.56
- Lens over 2.537.0%2.70
- Angers over 0.551.6%1.94
- Angers over 1.516.5%6.06
- Angers over 2.53.7%26.69
- Lens clean sheet48.4%2.07
- Angers clean sheet11.4%8.80
- Lens win to nil42.4%2.36
- Angers win to nil5.4%18.48
Handicap
- Lens −1.546.4%2.16
- Lens −2.525.0%3.99
- Angers +1.553.6%1.87
- Angers +2.575.0%1.33
- Angers −1.53.0%33.35
- Lens +1.597.0%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored233
Favourite won54.9%
Avg chance given to result42.2%
1X2 Brier0.578
Over 2.5 called right53.6%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 35 | 38.0% | 51.4% |
| 40–50% | 73 | 45.0% | 45.2% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 54.3% | 50.9% |
| 60–70% | 37 | 64.2% | 70.3% |
| 70–80% | 23 | 74.1% | 65.2% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 87.4% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 180 of 233 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5938 | 0.5850 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.4% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 51.7% | 53.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 180 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Monaco 2–0 Stade Brestois 2958·25·18
- ✗Angers 0–2 Nice41·28·31
- ✗Lorient 2–1 Lens25·26·50
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- ✗Lyon 1–1 Paris FC72·18·10
- ✓Stade Brestois 29 2–0 LE Havre57·25·19
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 233 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.