Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were clear favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lens. Lens had 6.2 days of rest, Angers 6.1 and had to travel 411 km.
Away travel411 kmRest days6.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lens70%
Draw19%
Angers11%
Lens68%
Draw19%
Angers12%
Lens70%
Draw20%
Angers11%
Lens63%
Draw22%
Angers14%
Lens70%
Draw19%
Angers11%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 83
Team strength
Lens
Angers
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
63
AttackIn forecast
22
53
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensAngers
1.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
85%
Scored inContext
62%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
35%
14.65
ShotsContext
8.81
5.04
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.52
34%
On target shareContext
35%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.48
71%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.79
OffsidesContext
1.90
10.69
Shots allowedContext
13.31
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.96
3.48
BlocksContext
2.77
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.72
74%
Save rateContext
76%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
448
PassesContext
407
381
Accurate passesContext
338
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.00
FoulsContext
11.08
12.42
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
1.46
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
16.40
ShotsContext
8.70
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
31%
On target shareContext
32%
11.11
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
67%
Box shareContext
63%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.86
OffsidesContext
1.50
8.40
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
2.30
BlocksContext
2.20
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
68%
Save rateContext
76%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
462
PassesContext
423
399
Accurate passesContext
356
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.20
FoulsContext
10.50
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,082 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Angers
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel411 km161 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Mar | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 411 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,082 km | 161 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 15.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
25P. Ganiou
4N. Čelik
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
23S. Abdulhamid
7F. Sotoca
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Angers
Confirmed XI
40O. Pona(G)
26F. Hanin
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
20Marius Louer
8B. van den Boomen
93H. Belkebla
7M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
14Y. Belkhdim
36Lanroy Machine
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Angers
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens+0.6 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Angers-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
2.54points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.62
Angers · Away
0.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 0.54
- Conceded
- 1.31
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lens | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H | L 0–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Metz | W 3–0 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Strasbourg | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–5 A |
| Monaco | L 2–3 HW 4–1 A | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Paris FC | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Rennes | W 3–1 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Marseille | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | L 2–5 HD 2–2 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Toulouse | W 3–0 A | W 1–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Nice | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Nantes | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Lille | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 53 of 75 · 2.12 per game | 32 of 75 · 1.28 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
6 Lens wins1 draws0 Angers wins
Goals per game1.86 – 0.71
Over 2.571%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 0%
- 30 Nov 2025Angers1–2Lens
- 26 Jan 2025Lens1–0Angers
- 18 Aug 2024Angers0–1Lens
- 18 Mar 2023Lens3–0Angers
- 5 Nov 2022Angers1–2Lens
- 27 Feb 2022Angers1–2Lens
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.88 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 2.12 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 58% | |
| Over 2.5 | 65% | 23% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 31% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 35% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 38% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Lens | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.00 | 2.90 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 20% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.96 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.68 | 4.72 | |
| Match total | 9.64 | 8.32 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 15/25 | 40% 10/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 13/25 | 32% 8/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 32% 8/25 | 20% 5/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 1.27 | |
| Match total | 4.27 | 2.77 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 62% 16/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 11/26 | 8% 2/26 | |
| Lens | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.70 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 7.60 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 2.90 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 83 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.73
Red cards0.23league 0.27
Cards 5+31%league 36%
Fouls24.6league 23.9
Penalties0.25league 0.37
Home wins51%league 48%
Lens10 with this referee
Record4-3-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
- W25 Oct 25H · Marseille2–13
- W15 Mar 25H · Rennes1–01
- D6 Oct 24A · Strasbourg2–24
- W9 Mar 24H · Stade Brestois 291–01
- D8 Dec 23A · Montpellier0–03
Angers8 with this referee
Record3-1-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L15 Feb 26A · Lorient0–20
- W12 Dec 25H · Nantes4–11
- L17 May 25A · Lyon0–22
- W19 Jan 25H · Auxerre2–02
- L30 Oct 22A · Monaco0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens26 games · scored 49 · conceded 23
5
4
0-15
5
5
16-30
10
4
31-45
12
1
46-60
5
6
61-75
12
3
76-90
Angers26 games · scored 23 · conceded 32
1
2
0-15
5
5
16-30
2
7
31-45
5
5
46-60
1
9
61-75
9
4
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
31-45
7
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
