Lens vs LE Havre – 30 Jan 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 20 Fri, Jan 30 · 19:45 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Lens 2nd · 43 pts · 19 played WWWWL

1–0Full time

LE Havre 15th · 20 pts · 19 played DLWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lens were clear favourites.

Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 23). Lens had 6 days of rest, LE Havre 6.1 and had to travel 221 km.

Away travel221 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Lens66%

Draw21%

LE Havre13%

Expected goals 2.09 – 0.82

Lens67%

Draw20%

LE Havre13%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.84

Lens66%

Draw21%

LE Havre13%

Expected goals 2.05 – 0.81

Lens59%

Draw23%

LE Havre18%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.92

Lens66%

Draw21%

LE Havre13%

Expected goals 2.11 – 0.84

Over 2.5 56% Both score 50% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lens)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 84

Team strength

Lens

LE Havre

59 L90 StrengthIn forecast 23

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

63 AttackIn forecast 20

53 DefenceIn forecast 22

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

LE Havre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lens

LE Havre

1.74 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.84

0.84 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.26

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.29

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

79% Scored inContext 58%

37% Clean sheetsContext 32%

13.53 ShotsContext 10.74

5.05 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.78

37% On target shareContext 33%

9.84 Shots in the boxContext 6.37

72% Box shareContext 58%

13% ConversionContext 8%

2.79 OffsidesContext 1.93

11.42 Shots allowedContext 11.32

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.83

3.94 BlocksContext 3.53

2.72 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

74% Save rateContext 65%

49% PossessionIn forecast 46%

445 PassesContext 371

376 Accurate passesContext 302

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.79

13.53 FoulsContext 13.26

12.79 Fouls sufferedContext 13.16

1.89 Yellow cardsContext 1.79

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.75 xGVia Att/Def 1.01

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.51

90% Scored inContext 40%

50% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.20 ShotsContext 10.80

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

40% On target shareContext 33%

10.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

71% Box shareContext 59%

13% ConversionContext 5%

2.63 OffsidesContext 2.13

9.50 Shots allowedContext 13.30

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

2.56 BlocksContext 4.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

75% Save rateContext 74%

55% PossessionIn forecast 47%

499 PassesContext 364

431 Accurate passesContext 293

86% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.85

14.40 FoulsContext 12.50

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.80

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,634 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

LE Havre

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel221 km403 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lens	LE Havre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Jan	6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	221 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,634 km	403 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	8.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

20M. Sarr 25P. Ganiou 32Kyllian Antonio

14M. Udol 28A. Thomasson 8M. Sangaré 2R. Aguilar

22W. Saïd 10F. Thauvin

11O. Édouard

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

LE Havre Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

77Lionel M'Pasi(G)

93A. Sangante 15A. Seko 29Stephan Zagadou

18Y. Zouaoui 26S. Ebonog 19L. Gourna-Douath 7L. Nego

14R. Ndiaye

17S. Boufal 45I. Soumaré

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lens Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

LE Havre Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lens+0.5 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
LE Havre-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home 2.67points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 8-0-1
Scored: 1.89
Conceded: 0.44

LE Havre · Away 0.67points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-5
Scored: 0.56
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Lens	LE Havre
Marseille	L 1–3 AW 2–1 H	L 2–6 A
Auxerre	W 1–0 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
Toulouse	W 3–0 A	D 0–0 A
Nice	W 2–0 H	W 3–1 H
Nantes	W 2–1 A	D 1–1 H
Angers	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 H
Strasbourg	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Monaco	W 4–1 A	D 0–0 HL 1–3 A
Lorient	W 3–0 H	D 1–1 H
Metz	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 A
Paris FC	W 2–1 H	D 0–0 H
Rennes	D 0–0 A	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H
Lille	W 3–0 H	L 0–1 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–2 A	L 0–3 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–1 H	W 1–0 H
Lyon	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Points	40 of 54 · 2.22 per game	20 of 54 · 1.11 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Lens wins2 draws1 LE Havre wins

Goals per game1.60 – 1.40 Over 2.560% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 20%

24 Aug 2025LE Havre1–2Lens
1 Mar 2025Lens3–4LE Havre
12 Jan 2025LE Havre1–2Lens
6 Apr 2024Lens1–1LE Havre
20 Oct 2023LE Havre0–0Lens

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lens	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.74	0.84
Conceded per game	0.84	1.26
Match goals	2.58	2.11	2.91
Over 1.5	79%	53%
Over 2.5	63%	37%	56%
Over 3.5	16%	21%
Both teams scored	47%	47%	50%
Clean sheets	37%	32%
Failed to score	21%	42%
Games	19	19

	Lens	LE Havre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	0.50
Conceded per game	0.80	0.80
Match goals	2.70	1.30	2.91
Over 1.5	80%	40%
Over 2.5	60%	20%	56%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	50%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	10%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lens	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	5.89	4.65
Corners conceded	4.06	4.65
Match total	9.95	9.30	9.22
Over 8.5	61% 11/18	59% 10/17
Over 9.5	56% 10/18	35% 6/17
Over 10.5	44% 8/18	35% 6/17
Cards
Cards	2.05	1.84
Opponent cards	2.37	2.26
Match total	4.42	4.10	3.94
Over 3.5	68% 13/19	68% 13/19
Over 4.5	47% 9/19	32% 6/19

	Lens	LE Havre	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	5.30
Corners conceded	3.00	4.90
Match total	8.20	10.20	9.22
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	2.00	2.20
Match total	3.70	4.00	3.94
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 84 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.71league 3.60

Red cards0.23league 0.32

Cards 5+37%league 35%

Fouls24.6league 24.2

Penalties0.30league 0.43

Home wins42%league 49%

Lens6 with this referee

Record3-2-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

W4 May 25A · Lyon2–13
D14 Dec 24A · Auxerre2–21
D21 Sep 24A · Rennes1–14
W12 Mar 23A · Clermont Foot4–02
W19 Mar 22H · Clermont Foot3–11

LE Havre3 with this referee

Record0-2-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.7 Pens for · against2 · 0

D2 Nov 25A · Toulouse0–03
L19 May 24H · Marseille1–21
D28 Jan 24A · Lorient3–34

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.