Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were clear favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Metz. Lens had 8.8 days of rest, Metz 6.9 and had to travel 279 km.
Away travel279 kmRest days8.8 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lens72%
Draw18%
Metz9%
Lens76%
Draw16%
Metz8%
Lens73%
Draw18%
Metz9%
Lens66%
Draw21%
Metz13%
Lens73%
Draw18%
Metz9%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMathieu Vernice
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 54
Team strength
Lens
Metz
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
12
63
AttackIn forecast
11
53
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMetz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensMetz
1.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.92
0.88
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.21
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
83%
Scored inContext
58%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
14.13
ShotsContext
9.04
4.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
35%
On target shareContext
31%
9.91
Shots in the boxContext
5.86
70%
Box shareContext
59%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.78
OffsidesContext
1.72
11.13
Shots allowedContext
14.04
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.46
3.57
BlocksContext
3.26
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.77
75%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
440
PassesContext
445
373
Accurate passesContext
383
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.70
13.17
FoulsContext
10.96
12.54
Fouls sufferedContext
10.92
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.54
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
0.67
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
100%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.60
ShotsContext
9.30
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.38
31%
On target shareContext
29%
10.22
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
65%
Box shareContext
53%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.86
OffsidesContext
1.75
8.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
2.10
BlocksContext
3.60
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
76%
Save rateContext
64%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
449
PassesContext
457
383
Accurate passesContext
395
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.67
13.70
FoulsContext
11.40
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km820 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Metz
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel279 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Metz |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 27 Feb | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 279 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 820 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
25P. Ganiou
4N. Čelik
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
23S. Abdulhamid
19A. Sima
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Metz
Confirmed XI
1Jonathan Fischer(G)
97F. Ballo-Touré
2M. Colin
5J. Gbamin
38S. Sané
70B. Sarr
12Alpha Touré
33Believe Munongo
8B. Traoré
30M. Diallo
11G. Kvilitaia
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Metz
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Metz+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
2.50points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-0-2
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 0.67
Metz · Away
0.33points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-10
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lens | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Monaco | L 2–3 HW 4–1 A | L 2–5 A |
| Paris FC | W 5–0 AW 2–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Rennes | W 3–1 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Marseille | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Toulouse | W 3–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| Nice | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Angers | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Lorient | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Lille | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 HL 1–6 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Lyon | L 0–1 H | L 2–5 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 53 of 69 · 2.30 per game | 10 of 69 · 0.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Lens wins1 draws3 Metz wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.20
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets20% · 60%
- 29 Oct 2025Metz2–0Lens
- 12 Apr 2024Metz2–1Lens
- 16 Sep 2023Lens0–1Metz
- 13 Mar 2022Metz0–0Lens
- 24 Oct 2021Lens4–1Metz
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.88 | 0.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.88 | 2.21 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.13 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 58% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 42% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Lens | Metz | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.83 | 4.09 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 9.61 | 8.92 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 13/23 | 35% 8/23 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 11/23 | 17% 4/23 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 8/23 | 17% 4/23 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.04 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.42 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 3.13 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 15/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 10/24 | 25% 6/24 | |
| Lens | Metz | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.80 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 8.11 | 9.15 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.20 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Mathieu Vernice France · 54 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.19league 3.71
Red cards0.39league 0.29
Cards 5+50%league 36%
Fouls26.7league 24.0
Penalties0.33league 0.39
Home wins43%league 49%
Lens5 with this referee
Record3-0-2
Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W2 Jan 26A · Toulouse3–03
- L27 Apr 25H · Auxerre0–45
- L30 Mar 25A · Lille0–13
- W8 Dec 24H · Montpellier2–02
- W28 Jan 24A · Toulouse2–03
Metz2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Aug 25H · Strasbourg0–12
- D3 Sep 23H · Reims2–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens24 games · scored 45 · conceded 21
5
4
0-15
5
4
16-30
9
4
31-45
9
1
46-60
5
5
61-75
12
3
76-90
Metz24 games · scored 22 · conceded 53
3
7
0-15
3
7
16-30
3
11
31-45
2
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
9
17
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
7
76-90
Metz10 games · scored 8 · conceded 22
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
8
31-45
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
