Lens
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lens72.4%fair odds 1.38
Draw18.1%fair odds 5.51
Metz9.4%fair odds 10.62
Expected goals2.25 – 0.69total 2.94
Likeliest score2–013.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Metz
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lens ↓ · Metz → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lens goals, columns Metz goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–013.4%7.47
- 1–011.4%8.73
- 3–010.0%9.96
- 2–19.2%10.83
- 1–18.6%11.58
- 3–16.9%14.43
- 0–05.7%17.50
- 4–05.7%17.69
- 4–13.9%25.64
- 0–13.2%31.17
Winning margin
27.2%
Lens by 3+
fair 3.67
21.8%
Lens by 2
fair 4.59
23.4%
Lens by 1
fair 4.27
18.1%
Draw
fair 5.51
6.9%
Metz by 1
fair 14.55
2.0%
Metz by 2
fair 48.82
0.5%
Metz by 3+
fair 200.81
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
18%5+
Lens goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
Metz goals
50%0
35%1
12%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens win | 72.4% | 72.6% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 18.1% | 18.0% | +0.1 pp |
| Metz win | 9.4% | 9.4% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 56.9% | -0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 45.0% | 45.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Lens | 2.25 | 2.27 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Metz | 0.69 | 0.70 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lens win72.4%1.38
- Draw18.1%5.51
- Metz win9.4%10.62
- Double chance Lens or draw90.6%1.10
- Double chance Lens or Metz81.9%1.22
- Double chance Metz or draw27.6%3.63
- Draw no bet Lens88.5%1.13
- Draw no bet Metz11.5%8.69
Goals
- Over 0.594.3%1.06
- Over 1.579.6%1.26
- Over 2.556.4%1.77
- Over 3.534.0%2.94
- Over 4.517.5%5.71
- Under 1.520.4%4.91
- Under 2.543.6%2.29
- Under 3.566.0%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes45.0%2.22
- No55.0%1.82
- Yes and over 2.536.4%2.75
- Lens win and yes28.0%3.57
- Draw and yes12.4%8.05
- Metz win and yes4.6%21.70
Team goals
- Lens over 0.589.5%1.12
- Lens over 1.565.8%1.52
- Lens over 2.539.1%2.56
- Metz over 0.549.8%2.01
- Metz over 1.515.2%6.56
- Metz over 2.53.3%30.35
- Lens clean sheet50.2%1.99
- Metz clean sheet10.5%9.50
- Lens win to nil44.4%2.25
- Metz win to nil4.8%20.78
Handicap
- Lens −1.549.0%2.04
- Lens −2.527.2%3.67
- Metz +1.551.0%1.96
- Metz +2.572.8%1.37
- Metz −1.52.5%39.27
- Lens +1.597.5%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored220
Favourite won55.5%
Avg chance given to result42.4%
1X2 Brier0.573
Over 2.5 called right53.2%
BTTS called right53.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 35 | 38.0% | 51.4% |
| 40–50% | 67 | 44.9% | 46.3% |
| 50–60% | 55 | 54.2% | 49.1% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 64.4% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 20 | 74.4% | 70.0% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 87.4% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 180 of 220 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5938 | 0.5850 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.4% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 51.7% | 53.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 180 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Paris FC 1–0 Nice30·26·44
- ✓LE Havre 0–1 Paris Saint Germain9·16·75
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 220 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.