Lens vs Nice – 14 Dec 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 16 Sun, Dec 14 · 16:15 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Lens 2nd · 34 pts · 15 played WWWWW

2–0Full time

Nice 12th · 17 pts · 15 played LLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lens were clear favourites.

Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 31). Lens had 8 days of rest, Nice 2.9 and had to travel 820 km.

Away travel820 kmRest days8 · 2.9Matches / 14d2 · 3

Lens60%

Draw23%

Nice17%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.91

Lens60%

Draw23%

Nice17%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.94

Lens60%

Draw23%

Nice17%

Expected goals 1.88 – 0.91

Lens53%

Draw25%

Nice22%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.02

Lens60%

Draw23%

Nice17%

Expected goals 1.94 – 0.93

Over 2.5 54% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lens)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceWilly Delajod

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.42
Matches 99

Team strength

Lens

Nice

56 L90 StrengthIn forecast 31

55 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

63 AttackIn forecast 26

53 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lens

Nice

1.73 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.27

0.87 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.05

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

73% Scored inContext 80%

27% Clean sheetsContext 13%

13.60 ShotsContext 10.80

5.07 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.87

37% On target shareContext 36%

10.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.71

74% Box shareContext 60%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.75 OffsidesContext 1.92

12.40 Shots allowedContext 15.27

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

4.43 BlocksContext 4.73

2.73 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.93

75% Save rateContext 71%

48% PossessionIn forecast 47%

440 PassesContext 413

372 Accurate passesContext 348

84% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.73 FoulsContext 12.20

11.73 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.87 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 15 and 15 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.06

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.26

80% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.50 ShotsContext 10.30

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.44

39% On target shareContext 30%

9.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

78% Box shareContext 63%

14% ConversionContext 8%

2.44 OffsidesContext 1.63

12.00 Shots allowedContext 14.10

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

4.44 BlocksContext 4.10

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38

74% Save rateContext 71%

49% PossessionIn forecast 45%

452 PassesContext 400

383 Accurate passesContext 335

85% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.66

13.00 FoulsContext 11.80

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,783 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nice

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel820 km1,878 km in 14d

Schedule load40%High

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lens	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	High · 40
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 6 Dec	2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 11 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	820 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,783 km	1,878 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	19.1	20.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

20M. Sarr 6S. Baidoo 25P. Ganiou

14M. Udol 28A. Thomasson 8M. Sangaré 2R. Aguilar

22W. Saïd 10F. Thauvin

11O. Édouard

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

4-3-3

80Y. Diouf(G)

26M. Bard 37Kojo Peprah Oppong 33A. Mendy 92J. Clauss

8M. Sanson 24C. Vanhoutte 6H. Boudaoui

21I. Jansson 10S. Diop 25M. Cho

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lens Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lens+0.8 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Nice-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home 2.57points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 6-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 0.57

Nice · Away 0.57points per game · 7 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-5
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 2.29

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Lens	Nice
Nantes	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 H
Angers	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 H
Monaco	W 4–1 A	D 2–2 A
Lorient	W 3–0 H	L 1–3 A
Metz	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 A
Marseille	W 2–1 H	L 1–5 H
Paris FC	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
Auxerre	W 2–1 A	W 3–1 H
Rennes	D 0–0 A	W 2–1 A
Lille	W 3–0 H	W 2–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
Stade Brestois 29	W 3–1 H	L 1–4 A
LE Havre	W 2–1 A	L 1–3 A
Lyon	L 0–1 H	W 3–2 H
Points	31 of 42 · 2.21 per game	17 of 42 · 1.21 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

1 Lens wins2 draws5 Nice wins

Goals per game0.63 – 1.25 Over 2.538% Both scored25% Clean sheets38% · 63%

8 Feb 2025Nice2–0Lens
28 Sep 2024Lens0–0Nice
16 Mar 2024Lens1–3Nice
20 Dec 2023Nice2–0Lens
1 Feb 2023Lens0–1Nice
29 Dec 2022Nice0–0Lens

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lens	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.73	1.27
Conceded per game	0.87	1.80
Match goals	2.60	3.07	2.83
Over 1.5	80%	73%
Over 2.5	67%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	13%	47%
Both teams scored	53%	67%	52%
Clean sheets	27%	13%
Failed to score	27%	20%
Games	15	15

	Lens	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	0.80
Conceded per game	0.80	2.00
Match goals	2.60	2.80	2.83
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lens	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	6.64	4.64
Corners conceded	4.29	5.93
Match total	10.93	10.57	9.29
Over 8.5	71% 10/14	86% 12/14
Over 9.5	64% 9/14	71% 10/14
Over 10.5	57% 8/14	43% 6/14
Cards
Cards	2.07	2.27
Opponent cards	2.40	1.93
Match total	4.47	4.20	4.05
Over 3.5	73% 11/15	67% 10/15
Over 4.5	47% 7/15	40% 6/15

	Lens	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	4.10
Corners conceded	3.80	5.60
Match total	9.70	9.70	9.29
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.30
Opponent cards	2.20	2.30
Match total	4.60	4.60	4.05
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Willy Delajod France · 99 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.57league 3.71

Red cards0.27league 0.31

Cards 5+39%league 36%

Fouls24.6league 24.2

Penalties0.42league 0.48

Home wins43%league 51%

Lens11 with this referee

Record4-3-4 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.5 Pens for · against4 · 0 Reds3

L2 Nov 24A · Paris Saint Germain0–15
D1 Sep 24A · Monaco1–14
L29 Mar 24A · Lille1–23
W10 Feb 24H · Strasbourg3–12
L2 Sep 23A · Monaco0–32

Nice11 with this referee

Record7-3-1 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.8 Pens for · against3 · 3 Reds3

D5 Oct 25A · Monaco2–23
W25 Apr 25A · Paris Saint Germain3–11
W23 Feb 25H · Montpellier2–01
W11 Jan 25A · Reims4–22
D19 May 24A · Lille2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.