Lens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lens. Lens had 7.8 days of rest, Rennes 6.8 and had to travel 416 km.
Away travel416 kmRest days7.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Lens57%
Draw24%
Rennes19%
Lens55%
Draw25%
Rennes21%
Lens58%
Draw24%
Rennes19%
Lens50%
Draw26%
Rennes24%
Lens57%
Draw24%
Rennes19%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lens)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.39
- Matches 95
Team strength
Lens
Rennes
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
56
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
63
AttackIn forecast
63
53
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LensRennes
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.55
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
75%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
13.60
ShotsContext
12.80
4.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
36%
On target shareContext
36%
9.85
Shots in the boxContext
8.21
72%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.79
OffsidesContext
2.47
11.25
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.58
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.05
3.79
BlocksContext
4.16
2.68
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.84
75%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
446
PassesContext
460
377
Accurate passesContext
392
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.80
FoulsContext
11.65
12.65
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
1.65
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.15
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
100%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.70
ShotsContext
12.80
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
40%
On target shareContext
37%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
72%
Box shareContext
60%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.50
8.70
Shots allowedContext
13.30
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.56
BlocksContext
4.30
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
81%
Save rateContext
72%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
493
PassesContext
457
425
Accurate passesContext
388
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.09
Team ratingContext
6.89
14.80
FoulsContext
11.50
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lens
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,634 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Rennes
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel416 km1,709 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lens |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Jan | 6.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 416 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,634 km | 1,709 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
6S. Baidoo
25P. Ganiou
14M. Udol
28A. Thomasson
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Rennes
Confirmed XI
50Mathys Silistrie(G)
24A. Rouault
97J. Jacquet
48A. Aït Boudlal
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
45M. Camara
21V. Rongier
17S. Szymański
70A. Nordin
7B. Embolo
9E. Lepaul
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lens
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lens-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Rennes+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Lens · Home
2.70points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-0-1
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 0.40
Rennes · Away
1.30points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-3
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lens | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| LE Havre | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Marseille | L 1–3 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Toulouse | W 3–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Nice | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Nantes | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Angers | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Strasbourg | W 1–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| Monaco | W 4–1 A | L 0–4 AW 4–1 H |
| Lorient | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Metz | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Paris FC | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lille | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–2 A | L 0–5 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Lyon | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 45 of 57 · 2.37 per game | 30 of 57 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
4 Lens wins5 draws0 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.56
Over 2.511%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets44% · 11%
- 28 Sep 2025Rennes0–0Lens
- 15 Mar 2025Lens1–0Rennes
- 21 Sep 2024Rennes1–1Lens
- 12 May 2024Rennes1–1Lens
- 20 Aug 2023Lens1–1Rennes
- 1 Apr 2023Rennes0–1Lens
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lens | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.55 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.05 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 55% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 55% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 25% | |
| Games | 20 | 20 |
| Lens | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lens | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.79 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 9.79 | 10.20 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 11/19 | 70% 14/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 10/19 | 55% 11/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 8/19 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.85 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.35 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.35 | 4.05 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 65% 13/20 | 60% 12/20 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 9/20 | 45% 9/20 | |
| Lens | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 11.40 | 9.14 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.90 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 95 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 3.63
Red cards0.31league 0.31
Cards 5+53%league 35%
Fouls22.4league 24.2
Penalties0.39league 0.43
Home wins42%league 49%
Lens10 with this referee
Record6-0-4
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 5
Reds4
- W2 Nov 25H · Lorient3–02
- L14 Sep 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–22
- L1 Mar 25H · LE Havre3–42
- L18 Jan 25H · Paris Saint Germain1–22
- W25 Aug 24H · Stade Brestois 292–03
Rennes6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 3
Reds1
- D5 Oct 25A · LE Havre2–22
- W15 Aug 25H · Marseille1–03
- L17 May 25A · Marseille2–43
- W15 Sep 24H · Montpellier3–01
- W26 Feb 23A · Nantes1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lens20 games · scored 34 · conceded 16
4
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
7
4
31-45
6
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
9
3
76-90
Rennes20 games · scored 30 · conceded 31
2
4
0-15
8
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
8
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
8
9
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 20 · conceded 6
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
1
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
