Lens vs Sporting CP – 13 Oct 2026

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 Tue, Oct 13 · 17:45 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Lens 11th · 3 pts · 1 played W

0–2Full time

Sporting CP 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sporting CP were slight favourites.

Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lens. Sporting CP were without R. Zalazar. Lens had 3.9 days of rest, Sporting CP 3.9 and had to travel 1,607 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,607 kmRest days3.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Lens34%

Draw23%

Sporting CP43%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.72

Lens27%

Draw25%

Sporting CP47%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.57

Lens34%

Draw23%

Sporting CP43%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.71

Lens27%

Draw22%

Sporting CP51%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.93

Lens34%

Draw24%

Sporting CP42%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.66

Over 2.5 63% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lens)

17°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 17 km/h
Humidity 84%

RefereeIgor Pajač

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.27
Matches 26

Team strength

Lens

Sporting CP

58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 82

56 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

63 AttackIn forecast 75

53 DefenceIn forecast 81

48 Form indexContext 77

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack−32%

Defense risk+42%

Sporting CP

Attack−10%

Defense risk+43%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Lens

Sporting CP

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.88

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.91

80% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.80 ShotsContext 12.20

6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

39% On target shareContext 43%

11.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

71% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 21%

2.11 OffsidesContext 1.78

12.50 Shots allowedContext 9.30

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.89

3.89 BlocksContext 2.00

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

71% Save rateContext 77%

51% PossessionIn forecast 57%

454 PassesContext 534

383 Accurate passesContext 472

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.98

11.30 FoulsContext 11.80

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens LWDLW

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 48 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected

W9 OctH · Lyon2–11.6 xPts
L18 SepA · Monaco1–21.3 xPts
D13 SepA · Le Mans2–22.0 xPts
W10 SepA · Slavia Praha3–21.5 xPts
L5 SepH · Lorient0–12.3 xPts

Sporting CP WWDDW

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,607 km641 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 77 · 11 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W9 OctA · SC Braga3–11.5 xPts
D19 SepH · Arouca2–22.4 xPts
D13 SepA · Famalicao1–11.9 xPts
W9 SepH · Galatasaray3–11.8 xPts
W5 SepH · Nacional2–02.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lens	Sporting CP
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 9 Oct	3.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 9 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,607 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	641 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

32Kyllian Antonio 6S. Baidoo 25P. Ganiou

14M. Udol 21A. Haidara 27M. Cuisance 23S. Abdulhamid

28J. Kadile 10F. Thauvin

29F. Ivanović

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Sporting CP Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30Kaique(G)

20M. Araújo 25G. Inácio 72Eduardo Quaresma 22Iván Fresneda

77I. Doumbia 5Sergi Altimira 8João Simões

19N. Irankunda 97L. Suárez 10Geny Catamo

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lens Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −6.7% · Defence line −7.6% of weighted minutes

ATT A. Sima Rotation 6.66 Att −4.9%
MID T. Hazard Rotation 6.24 Att −1.7% Def −1.2%
DEF M. Nawrocki Rotation 6.35 Def −2.3%
DEF J. Todibo Rotation 6.49 Def −2.1%
DEF J. Gradit Rotation 6.88 Def −1.9%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): J. Chávez, M. Diarra, Ilan Jourdren

Sporting CP Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −9.3% · Defence line −8.5% of weighted minutes

MID R. Zalazar Starter 6.96 Att −9.2% Def −6.2%
DEF Z. Debast Rotation 6.97 Def −2.2%
MID Nuno Santos Depth 6.68 Att −0.2% Def −0.1%

Total impact vs full squads

Lens+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Sporting CP-0.1 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home No home games yet this season.

Sporting CP · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Lens	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	3.00
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	4.00	3.25
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	63%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	64%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Lens	Sporting CP	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	2.60
Conceded per game	1.40	1.00
Match goals	3.30	3.60	3.25
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	70%	80%	63%
Over 3.5	40%	70%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	64%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lens	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	9.00	1.00
Corners conceded	6.00	4.00
Match total	15.00	5.00	9.06
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	3.00
Match total	2.00	5.00	3.78
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Lens	Sporting CP	League
Corners
Corners won	7.22	3.56
Corners conceded	5.56	3.11
Match total	12.78	6.67	9.06
Over 8.5	100% 9/9	11% 1/9
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	0% 0/9
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	0% 0/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.10
Opponent cards	1.30	2.40
Match total	3.20	4.50	3.78
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Igor Pajač 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.54league 3.61

Red cards0.15league 0.17

Cards 5+38%league 33%

Fouls22.9league 23.0

Penalties0.27league 0.17

Home wins50%league 61%

Lens

No previous matches with this referee.

Sporting CP

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.