Levante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Levante were slight favourites.
Levante were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Levante had 4.9 days of rest, Oviedo 7 and had to travel 628 km.
Away travel628 kmRest days4.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Levante43%
Draw30%
Oviedo28%
Levante52%
Draw25%
Oviedo23%
Levante43%
Draw30%
Oviedo27%
Levante36%
Draw30%
Oviedo34%
Levante44%
Draw28%
Oviedo28%
Over 2.5 39%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 50
Team strength
Levante
Oviedo
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
55
AttackIn forecast
23
41
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LevanteOviedo
1.07
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.64
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
64%
Scored inContext
43%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
10.82
ShotsContext
9.32
3.41
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.07
30%
On target shareContext
33%
7.07
Shots in the boxContext
6.04
64%
Box shareContext
62%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.18
OffsidesContext
2.52
16.39
Shots allowedContext
15.07
5.39
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
4.39
BlocksContext
3.96
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.44
71%
Save rateContext
75%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
347
PassesContext
371
275
Accurate passesContext
302
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.76
12.36
FoulsContext
12.50
12.14
Fouls sufferedContext
11.57
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.11
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
50%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.30
ShotsContext
10.30
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
24%
On target shareContext
36%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
57%
Box shareContext
69%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.71
15.70
Shots allowedContext
14.70
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.80
BlocksContext
4.60
4.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
70%
Save rateContext
66%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
351
PassesContext
343
282
Accurate passesContext
268
80%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.70
12.10
FoulsContext
13.00
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km604 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel628 km1,377 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9La Liga 2025-2026, 16 Mar | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 628 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 604 km | 1,377 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.8 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
3A. Matturro
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
20Oriol Rey
26Kareem Tunde
18Iker Losada
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
17Víctor García
19Carlos Espí
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
4David Costas
2E. Bailly
22Nacho Vidal
23N. Fonseca
6Kwasi Sibo
15T. Fernandez
5Alberto Reina
7I. Chaira
9Federico Viñas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Oviedo+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
0.79points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.71
Oviedo · Away
0.50points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-9
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 2.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H | L 0–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 HW 4–0 A | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Alaves | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 2–3 H | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Villarreal | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Valencia | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Athletic Club | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Elche | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H | L 0–3 H |
| Espanyol | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Sevilla | W 3–0 A | L 0–4 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 1–1 H | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Osasuna | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Getafe | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Real Betis | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 20 of 81 · 0.74 per game | 21 of 81 · 0.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Levante wins0 draws0 Oviedo wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 4 Oct 2025Oviedo0–2Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.07 | 0.64 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 2.21 | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 36% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 32% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 57% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Levante | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.70 | 2.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 39% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.08 | 3.85 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.88 | 5.78 | |
| Match total | 9.96 | 9.63 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 13/25 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 11/25 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 9/25 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 2.18 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.68 | 3.68 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 20/28 | 50% 14/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 15/28 | 32% 9/28 | |
| Levante | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 4.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 9.66 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.90 | 4.48 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.36league 4.22
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+50%league 47%
Fouls24.6league 24.5
Penalties0.44league 0.37
Home wins40%league 48%
Levante1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L8 Nov 25A · Atletico Madrid1–31
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante28 games · scored 30 · conceded 46
3
6
0-15
4
3
16-30
4
9
31-45
5
8
46-60
5
6
61-75
9
14
76-90
Oviedo27 games · scored 18 · conceded 44
1
3
0-15
2
6
16-30
4
7
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
10
61-75
4
12
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 9 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
7
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
5
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
