Levante
Attack+2%
Defense risk−13%
Our take
Levante were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Levante. Levante had 22.1 days of rest, Sevilla 23 and had to travel 540 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel540 kmRest days22.1 · 23Matches / 14d0 · 0
Levante45%
Draw25%
Sevilla30%
Levante43%
Draw26%
Sevilla31%
Levante44%
Draw25%
Sevilla30%
Levante37%
Draw26%
Sevilla37%
Levante45%
Draw24%
Sevilla30%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
Warm
23°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 87%
Referee · SpainAdrian Cordero Vega
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 23
Team strength
Levante
Sevilla
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
50
55
AttackIn forecast
48
41
DefenceIn forecast
57
49
Form indexContext
62
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSevilla
Attack+8%
Defense risk−8%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
LevanteSevilla
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
2.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
50%
Scored inContext
100%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.67
ShotsContext
11.00
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
34%
On target shareContext
38%
7.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.29
58%
Box shareContext
56%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.33
15.17
Shots allowedContext
11.29
5.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
3.00
BlocksContext
3.20
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
63%
Save rateContext
69%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
354
PassesContext
337
287
Accurate passesContext
259
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.00
FoulsContext
14.43
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
14.29
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.29
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.62
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.00
ShotsContext
11.10
5.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
36%
On target shareContext
37%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
61%
Box shareContext
53%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.22
13.40
Shots allowedContext
10.90
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
3.13
BlocksContext
2.88
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
67%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
359
PassesContext
347
295
Accurate passesContext
275
82%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.83
9.80
FoulsContext
14.80
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Levante
DWDLL
Rest22.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 5 pts vs 5.2 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
Sevilla
LDWWL
Rest23 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel540 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 62 · 7 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Levante |
Sevilla |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22.1La Liga 2026-2027, 20 Sep | 23La Liga 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 540 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
3Ifeanyi Ndukwe
4Adrián de la Fuente
22J. Toljan
7Roger Brugué
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
20Oriol Rey
17Víctor García
11Yanis Musuayi
9Iván Romero
Sevilla
Confirmed XI
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo
4Kike Salas
5A. López Gallo
2Juan Iglesias
6L. Agoumé
8G. Kochorashvili
20Félix Correia
24Y. Fofana
30Miguel Sierra
9R. Ure
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Levante
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals
Attack line −8.3% · Defence line −0.9% of weighted minutes
- ATT E. Eyong Rotation 6.55 Att −6.3%
- MID Hugo Sotelo Rotation 6.45 Att −2.0% Def −0.9%
Sevilla
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −10.2% · Defence line −3.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT L. Stassin Rotation 6.77 Att −7.6%
- MID R. Vargas Rotation 6.68 Att −2.5% Def −1.5%
- DEF Marcão Rotation 6.44 Def −1.4%
- MID Nico Guillén Depth 6.30 Att −0.1% Def −0.1%
Total impact vs full squads
- Levante+0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sevilla-0.2 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Levante · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Sevilla · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Levante | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 2–4 H | L 1–3 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Levante wins0 draws4 Sevilla wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.67
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 23 Apr 2026Levante2–0Sevilla
- 4 Jan 2026Sevilla0–3Levante
- 21 Apr 2022Levante2–3Sevilla
- 24 Oct 2021Sevilla5–3Levante
- 21 Apr 2021Levante0–1Sevilla
- 1 Oct 2020Sevilla1–0Levante
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Levante | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.33 | 2.71 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 57% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 71% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 7 |
| Levante | Sevilla | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.60 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Levante | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 3.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 3.71 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 7.00 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 3.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.28 | 4.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Levante | Sevilla | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 7.20 | 9.90 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.60 | 4.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Adrian Cordero Vega Spain · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.04league 4.30
Red cards0.13league 0.29
Cards 5+48%league 55%
Fouls24.0league 24.8
Penalties0.30league 0.36
Home wins78%league 45%
Levante2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W12 May 26A · Celta Vigo3–22
- L29 Nov 25H · Athletic Club0–23
Sevilla2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L24 Oct 25A · Real Sociedad1–23
- L24 Apr 25A · Osasuna0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Levante6 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Sevilla7 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 17 · conceded 18
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
7
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
