Lille vs Brann – 25 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Thu, Sep 25 · 17:45 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille

2–1Full time

Brann

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille were clear favourites.

Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 20). Lille had 4.9 days of rest, Brann ? and had to travel 1,095 km.

Away travel1,095 kmRest days4.9 · ?Matches / 14d2 · 0

Lille73%

Draw17%

Brann10%

Expected goals 2.47 – 0.82

Lille71%

Draw18%

Brann10%

Expected goals 2.31 – 0.77

Lille73%

Draw17%

Brann10%

Expected goals 2.47 – 0.82

Lille66%

Draw20%

Brann14%

Expected goals 2.21 – 0.92

Lille71%

Draw18%

Brann10%

Expected goals 2.31 – 0.77

Over 2.5 64% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 58

Team strength

Lille

Brann

62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

42 AttackIn forecast 21

60 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brann

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

Brann

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.71 xGVia Att/Def —

1.20 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext —

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

14.60 ShotsContext 11.40

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

32% On target shareContext 46%

10.67 Shots in the boxContext —

69% Box shareContext —

14% ConversionContext 19%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.25

9.10 Shots allowedContext 11.80

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

2.22 BlocksContext 2.40

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

71% Save rateContext 65%

59% PossessionIn forecast 56%

513 PassesContext —

441 Accurate passesContext —

86% Pass accuracyContext —

6.98 Team ratingContext —

10.80 FoulsContext 11.80

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km63 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brann

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,095 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Brann
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 20 Sep	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,095 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	63 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-4-2

1B. Özer(G)

24C. Verdonk 38Maxima Goffi 18C. Mbemba 22Tiago Santos

11O. Sahraoui 6N. Bentaleb 10H. Haraldsson 17N. Mukau

29H. Igamane 7M. Fernandez-Pardo

Brann Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1M. Dyngeland(G)

20V. Dragsnes 26E. Helland 3F. Knudsen 23T. Pedersen

8F. Myhre 18J. Sørensen 10E. Kornvig

9N. Castro 29N. Holm 22S. Magnússon

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Absences are shown before kick-off

Brann Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Brann+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home No home games yet this season.

Brann · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Brann	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.30
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	64%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Lille	Brann	Forecast
Scored per game	2.60	—
Conceded per game	1.60	—
Match goals	4.20	—	3.30
Over 1.5	80%	—
Over 2.5	80%	—	64%
Over 3.5	40%	—
Both teams scored	60%	—	52%
Clean sheets	20%	—
Failed to score	20%	—
Games	5	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Brann	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.67
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.56
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Lille	Brann	League
Corners
Corners won	6.30	3.40
Corners conceded	4.00	5.00
Match total	10.30	8.40	8.67
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	40% 2/5
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	40% 2/5
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	40% 2/5
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.60
Opponent cards	1.90	2.80
Match total	3.80	5.40	4.56
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 58 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 4.56

Red cards0.16league 0.00

Cards 5+34%league 56%

Fouls20.3league 26.1

Penalties0.21league 0.22

Home wins33%league 44%

Lille

No previous matches with this referee.

Brann

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.