Lille
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
UEFA Europa League
Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 19 · 20:00
Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
Lille47.3%fair odds 2.11
Draw26.6%fair odds 3.75
FK Crvena Zvezda26.0%fair odds 3.84
Expected goals1.55 – 1.09total 2.64
Likeliest score1–112.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
FK Crvena Zvezda
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lille ↓ · FK Crvena Zvezda → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lille goals, columns FK Crvena Zvezda goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.7%7.87
- 1–010.5%9.56
- 2–19.3%10.70
- 2–08.6%11.64
- 0–07.8%12.81
- 0–17.2%13.99
- 1–26.6%15.25
- 2–25.1%19.69
- 3–14.8%20.73
- 3–04.4%22.54
Winning margin
10.0%
Lille by 3+
fair 10.05
14.6%
Lille by 2
fair 6.87
22.8%
Lille by 1
fair 4.38
26.6%
Draw
fair 3.75
15.8%
FK Crvena Zvezda by 1
fair 6.32
7.2%
FK Crvena Zvezda by 2
fair 13.94
3.0%
FK Crvena Zvezda by 3+
fair 33.07
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Lille goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
FK Crvena Zvezda goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille win | 47.3% | 46.2% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw | 26.6% | 27.5% | -0.8 pp |
| FK Crvena Zvezda win | 26.0% | 26.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.1% | 46.1% | +3.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.8% | 50.7% | +2.2 pp |
| Expected goals Lille | 1.55 | 1.47 | +0.08 |
| Expected goals FK Crvena Zvezda | 1.09 | 1.05 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lille win47.3%2.11
- Draw26.6%3.75
- FK Crvena Zvezda win26.0%3.84
- Double chance Lille or draw74.0%1.35
- Double chance Lille or FK Crvena Zvezda73.4%1.36
- Double chance FK Crvena Zvezda or draw52.7%1.90
- Draw no bet Lille64.5%1.55
- Draw no bet FK Crvena Zvezda35.5%2.82
Goals
- Over 0.592.2%1.08
- Over 1.574.6%1.34
- Over 2.549.1%2.04
- Over 3.527.2%3.68
- Over 4.512.8%7.83
- Under 1.525.4%3.94
- Under 2.550.9%1.96
- Under 3.572.8%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes52.8%1.89
- No47.2%2.12
- Yes and over 2.540.1%2.49
- Lille win and yes21.4%4.67
- Draw and yes18.8%5.31
- FK Crvena Zvezda win and yes12.6%7.95
Team goals
- Lille over 0.578.7%1.27
- Lille over 1.545.8%2.18
- Lille over 2.520.3%4.91
- FK Crvena Zvezda over 0.566.3%1.51
- FK Crvena Zvezda over 1.529.6%3.37
- FK Crvena Zvezda over 2.59.7%10.31
- Lille clean sheet33.7%2.97
- FK Crvena Zvezda clean sheet21.3%4.71
- Lille win to nil25.9%3.86
- FK Crvena Zvezda win to nil13.4%7.44
Handicap
- Lille −1.524.5%4.08
- Lille −2.510.0%10.05
- FK Crvena Zvezda +1.575.5%1.32
- FK Crvena Zvezda +2.590.0%1.11
- FK Crvena Zvezda −1.510.2%9.81
- Lille +1.589.8%1.11
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored4
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result35.0%
1X2 Brier0.650
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 36.7% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 3 | 44.3% | 33.3% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 4 of 4 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6496 | 0.6459 |
| Avg chance given to result | 35.0% | 35.4% |
| Favourite won | 50.0% | 25.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 4 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 4 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.