Lille vs FK Crvena Zvezda – 19 Feb 2026

UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 19 · 20:00 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille

0–1Full time

FK Crvena Zvezda

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Lille had 5.1 days of rest, FK Crvena Zvezda 21 and had to travel 1,442 km.

Away travel1,442 kmRest days5.1 · 21Matches / 14d2 · 0

Lille47%

Draw27%

FK Crvena Zvezda26%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.09

Lille47%

Draw26%

FK Crvena Zvezda27%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13

Lille47%

Draw27%

FK Crvena Zvezda26%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.08

Lille40%

Draw28%

FK Crvena Zvezda32%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.22

Lille46%

Draw27%

FK Crvena Zvezda26%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.05

Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

No weather data yet

Referee · GermanySven Jablonski

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.17
Matches 99

Team strength

Lille

FK Crvena Zvezda

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 42

42 AttackIn forecast 40

60 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

FK Crvena Zvezda

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

FK Crvena Zvezda

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90

1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

50% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.00 ShotsContext 12.80

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

27% On target shareContext 26%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

60% Box shareContext 68%

6% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.22

10.30 Shots allowedContext 10.90

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.44

2.60 BlocksContext 2.78

2.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

60% Save rateContext 68%

56% PossessionIn forecast 49%

489 PassesContext 417

425 Accurate passesContext 338

87% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.84

8.90 FoulsContext 11.80

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.40 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille

Rest5.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km541 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

FK Crvena Zvezda

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,442 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	FK Crvena Zvezda
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Feb	21UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,442 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	541 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 23A. Mandi 3N. Ngoy 32A. Bouaddi

21B. André 17N. Mukau

27Félix Correia 10H. Haraldsson 28G. Perrin

7M. Fernandez-Pardo

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

FK Crvena Zvezda Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1Matheus(G)

30F. Tebo Uchenna 5Rodrigão 25S. Eraković

23N. Tiknizyan 33R. Krunić 20Tomás Händel 66Y. Seol

37V. Lučić 17Bruno Duarte

42J. Enem

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

FK Crvena Zvezda Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
FK Crvena Zvezda+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home No home games yet this season.

FK Crvena Zvezda · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 Lille wins0 draws1 FK Crvena Zvezda wins

Goals per game0.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

6 Nov 2025FK Crvena Zvezda1–0Lille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	FK Crvena Zvezda	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.64
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	49%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	53%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Lille	FK Crvena Zvezda	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	0.88
Conceded per game	1.70	0.75
Match goals	2.50	1.63	2.64
Over 1.5	60%	50%
Over 2.5	40%	13%	49%
Over 3.5	20%	0%
Both teams scored	40%	38%	53%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	50%	13%
Games	10	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	FK Crvena Zvezda	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	8.75
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.75
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Lille	FK Crvena Zvezda	League
Corners
Corners won	5.90	5.50
Corners conceded	3.10	3.60
Match total	9.00	9.10	8.75
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.20
Opponent cards	1.80	1.80
Match total	3.80	4.00	2.75
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sven Jablonski Germany · 99 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.84league 2.75

Red cards0.11league 0.00

Cards 5+39%league 0%

Fouls20.1league 20.3

Penalties0.17league 0.00

Home wins42%league 0%

Lille1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W30 Nov 23A · Olimpija Ljubljana2–03

FK Crvena Zvezda

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.