Lille vs Lens – 4 Apr 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 4 · 20:05 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille 5th · 47 pts · 27 played WWDWW

3–0Full time

Lens 2nd · 59 pts · 27 played LDWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Lens. Lille had 13.1 days of rest, Lens 15 and had to travel 31 km.

Away travel31 kmRest days13.1 · 15Matches / 14d1 · 0

Lille38%

Draw28%

Lens35%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.27

Lille41%

Draw27%

Lens32%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24

Lille39%

Draw28%

Lens33%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.20

Lille31%

Draw27%

Lens42%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.43

Lille37%

Draw28%

Lens35%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.26

Over 2.5 48% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 124

Team strength

Lille

Lens

55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 59

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 55

42 AttackIn forecast 63

60 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lens

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

Lens

1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.26 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.89

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

70% Scored inContext 85%

30% Clean sheetsContext 37%

13.41 ShotsContext 15.07

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.19

32% On target shareContext 34%

9.56 Shots in the boxContext 10.62

70% Box shareContext 70%

12% ConversionContext 13%

1.59 OffsidesContext 2.79

9.59 Shots allowedContext 10.89

3.52 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.72

2.54 BlocksContext 3.54

2.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

66% Save rateContext 74%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

480 PassesContext 453

409 Accurate passesContext 386

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.05

10.85 FoulsContext 12.78

12.93 Fouls sufferedContext 12.15

2.15 Yellow cardsContext 1.78

0.19 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.95 xGVia Att/Def 2.04

0.80 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.99

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

70% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.10 ShotsContext 17.40

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20

32% On target shareContext 30%

7.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.67

66% Box shareContext 66%

9% ConversionContext 13%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.86

9.30 Shots allowedContext 9.20

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.90 BlocksContext 2.50

2.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

69% Save rateContext 68%

54% PossessionIn forecast 51%

485 PassesContext 464

409 Accurate passesContext 401

84% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.90 Team ratingContext 7.05

10.10 FoulsContext 12.30

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille

Rest13.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,662 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Lens

Rest15 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel31 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Lens
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Mar	15Ligue 1 2025-2026, 20 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	31 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,662 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 5	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 23A. Mandi 3N. Ngoy 12T. Meunier

32A. Bouaddi 6N. Bentaleb

27Félix Correia 10H. Haraldsson 17N. Mukau

7M. Fernandez-Pardo

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Lens Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

40R. Risser(G)

20M. Sarr 25P. Ganiou 4N. Čelik

14M. Udol 28A. Thomasson 8M. Sangaré 23S. Abdulhamid

22W. Saïd 10F. Thauvin

11O. Édouard

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Lens Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille-1.1 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Lens+1.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home 1.85points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 7-3-3
Scored: 1.54
Conceded: 1.08

Lens · Away 1.77points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 7-2-4
Scored: 1.77
Conceded: 1.15

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Lille	Lens
Marseille	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	L 1–3 AW 2–1 H
Rennes	W 2–1 AL 0–2 H	W 3–1 HD 0–0 A
Lorient	D 1–1 HW 7–1 A	L 1–2 AW 3–0 H
Nantes	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	W 2–1 A
Angers	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	W 5–1 HW 2–1 A
Stade Brestois 29	D 1–1 HD 3–3 A	W 3–1 H
Metz	D 0–0 AW 6–1 H	W 3–0 HL 0–2 A
Lyon	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 H
Strasbourg	L 1–4 HL 0–2 A	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–3 AD 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Auxerre	W 4–3 A	W 1–0 HW 2–1 A
LE Havre	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 HW 2–1 A
Paris FC	W 4–2 H	W 5–0 AW 2–1 H
Nice	L 0–2 A	W 2–0 H
Toulouse	W 2–1 H	W 3–0 A
Monaco	W 1–0 H	L 2–3 HW 4–1 A
Points	47 of 78 · 1.81 per game	56 of 78 · 2.15 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Lille wins2 draws3 Lens wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored44% Clean sheets33% · 22%

20 Sep 2025Lens3–0Lille
30 Mar 2025Lille1–0Lens
26 Oct 2024Lens0–2Lille
29 Mar 2024Lille2–1Lens
8 Oct 2023Lens1–1Lille
4 Mar 2023Lens1–1Lille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Lens	Forecast
Scored per game	1.56	2.00
Conceded per game	1.26	0.89
Match goals	2.81	2.89	2.61
Over 1.5	67%	81%
Over 2.5	41%	67%	48%
Over 3.5	22%	26%
Both teams scored	44%	52%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	37%
Failed to score	30%	15%
Games	27	27

	Lille	Lens	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.30
Conceded per game	0.80	1.10
Match goals	1.80	3.40	2.61
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	70%	48%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	40%
Failed to score	30%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	5.81	6.00
Corners conceded	3.56	3.62
Match total	9.37	9.62	9.11
Over 8.5	56% 15/27	62% 16/26
Over 9.5	44% 12/27	50% 13/26
Over 10.5	41% 11/27	31% 8/26
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.93
Opponent cards	1.81	2.19
Match total	4.14	4.12	3.99
Over 3.5	63% 17/27	59% 16/27
Over 4.5	41% 11/27	41% 11/27

	Lille	Lens	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	5.30
Corners conceded	3.60	2.70
Match total	9.20	8.00	9.11
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.80
Opponent cards	1.90	1.80
Match total	3.80	3.60	3.99
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · François Letexier France · 124 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.02league 3.69

Red cards0.27league 0.28

Cards 5+45%league 37%

Fouls22.1league 23.8

Penalties0.33league 0.37

Home wins52%league 48%

Lille13 with this referee

Record5-2-6 Cards · opp.2.6 · 2.5 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds2

L1 Feb 26A · Lyon0–14
L9 Nov 25A · Strasbourg0–22
L1 Mar 25A · Paris Saint Germain1–42
W17 Jan 25H · Nice2–11
L13 Sep 24A · Saint Etienne0–11

Lens18 with this referee

Record7-6-5 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.1 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds2

W4 Oct 25A · Auxerre2–17
W17 May 25H · Monaco4–01
L11 Apr 25H · Reims0–21
D28 Sep 24H · Nice0–03
D6 Apr 24H · LE Havre1–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.