Lille
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lille37.7%fair odds 2.65
Draw27.6%fair odds 3.62
Lens34.7%fair odds 2.89
Expected goals1.34 – 1.27total 2.61
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Lens
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lille ↓ · Lens → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lille goals, columns Lens goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.59
- 1–09.2%10.90
- 0–18.7%11.50
- 2–18.4%11.95
- 0–08.0%12.47
- 1–28.0%12.56
- 2–06.6%15.20
- 0–26.0%16.80
- 2–25.3%18.78
- 3–13.7%26.80
Winning margin
6.2%
Lille by 3+
fair 16.09
11.2%
Lille by 2
fair 8.93
20.3%
Lille by 1
fair 4.93
27.6%
Draw
fair 3.62
19.3%
Lens by 1
fair 5.19
10.1%
Lens by 2
fair 9.87
5.3%
Lens by 3+
fair 19.03
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Lille goals
26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
Lens goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille win | 37.7% | 37.4% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 27.6% | 27.9% | -0.2 pp |
| Lens win | 34.7% | 34.7% | -0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.4% | 47.4% | +1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.7% | 53.0% | +0.8 pp |
| Expected goals Lille | 1.34 | 1.31 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Lens | 1.27 | 1.26 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lille win37.7%2.65
- Draw27.6%3.62
- Lens win34.7%2.89
- Double chance Lille or draw65.3%1.53
- Double chance Lille or Lens72.4%1.38
- Double chance Lens or draw62.3%1.61
- Draw no bet Lille52.1%1.92
- Draw no bet Lens47.9%2.09
Goals
- Over 0.592.0%1.09
- Over 1.574.1%1.35
- Over 2.548.4%2.07
- Over 3.526.6%3.76
- Over 4.512.4%8.07
- Under 1.525.9%3.86
- Under 2.551.6%1.94
- Under 3.573.4%1.36
Both teams to score
- Yes53.7%1.86
- No46.3%2.16
- Yes and over 2.540.6%2.47
- Lille win and yes17.7%5.65
- Draw and yes19.6%5.10
- Lens win and yes16.4%6.09
Team goals
- Lille over 0.573.7%1.36
- Lille over 1.538.6%2.59
- Lille over 2.515.2%6.60
- Lens over 0.572.0%1.39
- Lens over 1.536.3%2.75
- Lens over 2.513.7%7.32
- Lille clean sheet28.0%3.57
- Lens clean sheet26.3%3.81
- Lille win to nil20.0%5.00
- Lens win to nil18.2%5.48
Handicap
- Lille −1.517.4%5.74
- Lille −2.56.2%16.09
- Lens +1.582.6%1.21
- Lens +2.593.8%1.07
- Lens −1.515.4%6.50
- Lille +1.584.6%1.18
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored245
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result42.5%
1X2 Brier0.572
Over 2.5 called right53.1%
BTTS called right52.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 37 | 37.9% | 54.1% |
| 40–50% | 78 | 45.0% | 47.4% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 54.3% | 50.9% |
| 60–70% | 39 | 64.3% | 69.2% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 73.9% | 68.0% |
| 80%+ | 9 | 86.9% | 88.9% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 192 of 245 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5855 | 0.5773 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.8% | 41.7% |
| Favourite won | 53.6% | 55.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 192 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 245 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.