Lille vs Nantes – 1 Mar 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 24 Sun, Mar 1 · 16:15 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille 6th · 37 pts · 23 played LLDDW

1–0Full time

Nantes 17th · 17 pts · 23 played LLLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille were clear favourites.

Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nantes. Lille had 2.9 days of rest, Nantes 7 and had to travel 511 km.

Away travel511 kmRest days2.9 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 1

Lille63%

Draw23%

Nantes14%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.75

Lille67%

Draw20%

Nantes13%

Expected goals 2.15 – 0.83

Lille63%

Draw23%

Nantes14%

Expected goals 1.85 – 0.74

Lille56%

Draw26%

Nantes18%

Expected goals 1.66 – 0.84

Lille63%

Draw23%

Nantes14%

Expected goals 1.85 – 0.76

Over 2.5 48% Both score 45% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceThomas Leonard

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 85

Team strength

Lille

Nantes

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 19

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

42 AttackIn forecast 24

60 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

Nantes

1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.96

1.35 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.74

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.43

+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

65% Scored inContext 65%

30% Clean sheetsContext 17%

14.00 ShotsContext 9.96

4.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.05

33% On target shareContext 28%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.17

70% Box shareContext 60%

11% ConversionContext 10%

1.61 OffsidesContext 1.87

9.65 Shots allowedContext 13.70

3.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.73

2.55 BlocksContext 4.32

2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.19

65% Save rateContext 66%

55% PossessionIn forecast 44%

479 PassesContext 362

409 Accurate passesContext 291

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.74

11.13 FoulsContext 12.00

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.17

1.87 Yellow cardsContext 2.09

0.22 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.18 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

0.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

60% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.70 ShotsContext 10.30

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

29% On target shareContext 32%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

61% Box shareContext 65%

5% ConversionContext 10%

1.78 OffsidesContext 2.14

8.60 Shots allowedContext 11.60

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.67

2.40 BlocksContext 3.50

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

61% Save rateContext 56%

56% PossessionIn forecast 43%

500 PassesContext 362

428 Accurate passesContext 291

86% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.70

10.80 FoulsContext 12.80

13.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,769 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nantes

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel511 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Nantes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 26 Feb	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	511 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,769 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

24C. Verdonk 3N. Ngoy 18C. Mbemba 22Tiago Santos

21B. André 17N. Mukau

28G. Perrin 10H. Haraldsson 27Félix Correia

7M. Fernandez-Pardo

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Nantes Confirmed XI

5-3-2

1A. Lopes(G)

27D. Machado 3N. Cozza 2Ali Yusuf 6C. Awaziem 18F. Centonze

66L. Leroux 21M. Kaba 8J. Lepenant

19Y. El-Arabi 37I. Ganago

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nantes Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille+0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Nantes-0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home 1.82points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 6-2-3
Scored: 1.64
Conceded: 1.18

Nantes · Away 0.82points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-6
Scored: 0.91
Conceded: 1.64

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Lille	Nantes
Angers	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	L 1–4 A
Stade Brestois 29	D 1–1 HD 3–3 A	D 0–0 A
Metz	D 0–0 AW 6–1 H	L 0–2 H
Lyon	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Strasbourg	L 1–4 HL 0–2 A	L 0–1 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–3 AD 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
Rennes	L 0–2 H	D 2–2 H
Auxerre	W 4–3 A	W 1–0 H
Marseille	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 A
LE Havre	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Paris FC	W 4–2 H	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
Nice	L 0–2 A	L 1–4 HL 0–1 A
Lens	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 H
Toulouse	W 2–1 H	D 2–2 A
Lorient	W 7–1 A	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Monaco	W 1–0 H	L 1–3 AL 3–5 H
Points	34 of 66 · 1.55 per game	17 of 66 · 0.77 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

5 Lille wins3 draws1 Nantes wins

Goals per game1.33 – 0.67 Over 2.522% Both scored56% Clean sheets33% · 11%

19 Oct 2025Nantes0–2Lille
15 Mar 2025Nantes1–0Lille
4 Jan 2025Lille1–1Nantes
12 May 2024Nantes1–2Lille
20 Aug 2023Lille2–0Nantes
27 May 2023Lille2–1Nantes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.57	0.96
Conceded per game	1.35	1.74
Match goals	2.91	2.70	2.61
Over 1.5	65%	74%
Over 2.5	39%	48%	48%
Over 3.5	26%	26%
Both teams scored	39%	52%	45%
Clean sheets	30%	17%
Failed to score	35%	35%
Games	23	23

	Lille	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	1.00
Conceded per game	1.20	2.10
Match goals	1.90	3.10	2.61
Over 1.5	50%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	70%	48%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	60%	45%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	6.17	3.32
Corners conceded	3.65	5.86
Match total	9.82	9.18	9.16
Over 8.5	61% 14/23	68% 15/22
Over 9.5	52% 12/23	50% 11/22
Over 10.5	48% 11/23	45% 10/22
Cards
Cards	2.09	2.13
Opponent cards	1.91	2.48
Match total	4.00	4.61	4.01
Over 3.5	57% 13/23	70% 16/23
Over 4.5	39% 9/23	48% 11/23

	Lille	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	3.22
Corners conceded	3.00	5.33
Match total	10.00	8.55	9.16
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.70
Opponent cards	2.00	2.60
Match total	3.50	5.30	4.01
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.56league 3.70

Red cards0.26league 0.29

Cards 5+41%league 36%

Fouls24.1league 23.9

Penalties0.26league 0.40

Home wins38%league 50%

Lille9 with this referee

Record5-1-3 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W19 Oct 25A · Nantes2–04
L10 May 25A · Stade Brestois 290–21
W20 Apr 25H · Auxerre3–11
L8 Feb 25H · LE Havre1–22
L6 May 23A · Reims0–13

Nantes9 with this referee

Record3-2-4 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 3 Reds1

L19 Oct 25H · Lille0–21
L4 May 25H · Angers0–12
L15 Feb 25A · Monaco1–72
W17 Sep 23A · Clermont Foot1–03
W15 Jan 23A · Montpellier3–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.