Lille vs Nice – 18 Apr 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 30 Sat, Apr 18 · 20:05 Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq

Lille 3rd · 53 pts · 29 played DWWWW

0–0Full time

Nice 15th · 28 pts · 29 played LWLLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lille were clear favourites.

Lille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lille. Lille had 6.2 days of rest, Nice 6.2 and had to travel 829 km.

Away travel829 kmRest days6.2 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

Lille75%

Draw16%

Nice8%

Expected goals 2.49 – 0.73

Lille65%

Draw21%

Nice14%

Expected goals 2.08 – 0.86

Lille75%

Draw16%

Nice8%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.71

Lille69%

Draw19%

Nice12%

Expected goals 2.22 – 0.81

Lille75%

Draw16%

Nice9%

Expected goals 2.47 – 0.74

Over 2.5 62% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 82

Team strength

Lille

Nice

60 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

42 AttackIn forecast 26

60 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lille

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lille

Nice

1.69 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.17

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.93

1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

+0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

72% Scored inContext 69%

34% Clean sheetsContext 14%

13.48 ShotsContext 10.76

4.62 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.97

34% On target shareContext 37%

9.66 Shots in the boxContext 6.93

71% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.08

9.41 Shots allowedContext 14.45

3.34 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.36

2.63 BlocksContext 3.83

2.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.62

67% Save rateContext 64%

55% PossessionIn forecast 47%

484 PassesContext 412

413 Accurate passesContext 343

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.75

10.79 FoulsContext 12.55

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.31

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.30 xGVia Att/Def 1.29

0.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.74

+0.30 Goals minus xGContext -0.39

80% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.30 ShotsContext 10.20

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

42% On target shareContext 37%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

69% Box shareContext 65%

14% ConversionContext 9%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.50

8.70 Shots allowedContext 12.70

2.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.22 BlocksContext 2.60

1.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

74% Save rateContext 56%

53% PossessionIn forecast 46%

488 PassesContext 398

417 Accurate passesContext 326

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.64

10.10 FoulsContext 12.70

12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lille

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,581 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nice

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel829 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lille	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 12 Apr	6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 12 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	829 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,581 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lille Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Özer(G)

15R. Perraud 23A. Mandi 18C. Mbemba 12T. Meunier

32A. Bouaddi 21B. André

27Félix Correia 10H. Haraldsson 17N. Mukau

7M. Fernandez-Pardo

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

5-4-1

80Y. Diouf(G)

26M. Bard 37Kojo Peprah Oppong 28A. Bah 33A. Mendy 92J. Clauss

10S. Diop 22T. Ndombélé 99S. Abdul Samed 25M. Cho

11S. Wahi

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lille Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lille+0.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Nice+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Lille · Home 1.93points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 8-3-3
Scored: 1.64
Conceded: 1.00

Nice · Away 0.71points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-10
Scored: 1.14
Conceded: 2.14

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Lille	Nice
Toulouse	W 4–0 AW 2–1 H	L 1–5 AL 0–1 H
Lens	W 3–0 HL 0–3 A	L 0–2 A
Marseille	W 2–1 AW 1–0 H	L 1–5 H
Rennes	W 2–1 AL 0–2 H	L 0–4 HW 2–1 A
Lorient	D 1–1 HW 7–1 A	D 3–3 HL 1–3 A
Nantes	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	W 4–1 AW 1–0 H
Angers	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	W 2–0 AL 0–1 H
Stade Brestois 29	D 1–1 HD 3–3 A	D 2–2 HL 1–4 A
Metz	D 0–0 AW 6–1 H	L 1–2 A
Lyon	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	L 0–2 AW 3–2 H
Strasbourg	L 1–4 HL 0–2 A	L 1–3 AD 1–1 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–3 AD 1–1 H	L 0–4 HL 0–1 A
Auxerre	W 4–3 A	W 3–1 H
LE Havre	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 HL 1–3 A
Paris FC	W 4–2 H	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Monaco	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A
Points	53 of 84 · 1.89 per game	25 of 84 · 0.89 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Lille wins3 draws4 Nice wins

Goals per game1.22 – 1.78 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

29 Oct 2025Nice2–0Lille
17 Jan 2025Lille2–1Nice
10 Nov 2024Nice2–2Lille
19 May 2024Lille2–2Nice
11 Aug 2023Nice1–1Lille
29 Jan 2023Nice1–0Lille

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lille	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.69	1.17
Conceded per game	1.17	1.93
Match goals	2.86	3.10	3.21
Over 1.5	69%	79%
Over 2.5	45%	55%	62%
Over 3.5	24%	48%
Both teams scored	41%	59%	48%
Clean sheets	34%	14%
Failed to score	28%	31%
Games	29	29

	Lille	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.90
Conceded per game	0.60	2.00
Match goals	2.20	2.90	3.21
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	50%	62%
Over 3.5	10%	50%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	48%
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Failed to score	20%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lille	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	5.59	4.89
Corners conceded	3.55	5.54
Match total	9.14	10.43	9.10
Over 8.5	52% 15/29	75% 21/28
Over 9.5	41% 12/29	68% 19/28
Over 10.5	38% 11/29	50% 14/28
Cards
Cards	2.28	2.21
Opponent cards	1.86	1.90
Match total	4.14	4.11	3.95
Over 3.5	62% 18/29	59% 17/29
Over 4.5	41% 12/29	34% 10/29

	Lille	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	5.30
Corners conceded	3.50	5.30
Match total	7.80	10.60	9.10
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.20
Opponent cards	1.90	2.10
Match total	4.00	4.30	3.95
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 82 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.82league 3.66

Red cards0.24league 0.28

Cards 5+38%league 36%

Fouls25.1league 23.8

Penalties0.39league 0.36

Home wins39%league 48%

Lille8 with this referee

Record4-3-1 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.6 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

L29 Oct 25A · Nice0–23
W28 Sep 24A · LE Havre3–01
W5 Apr 24H · Marseille3–11
W4 Feb 24H · Clermont Foot4–00
W1 Oct 23A · LE Havre2–00

Nice9 with this referee

Record2-3-4 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 3 Reds1

W29 Oct 25H · Lille2–03
L1 Dec 24A · Lyon1–42
D25 Aug 24H · Toulouse1–14
L31 Mar 24H · Nantes1–22
L13 Jan 24A · Rennes0–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.