Lille
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lille75.5%fair odds 1.32
Draw16.1%fair odds 6.22
Nice8.4%fair odds 11.84
Expected goals2.49 – 0.73total 3.21
Likeliest score2–012.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Nice
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lille ↓ · Nice → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lille goals, columns Nice goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.4%8.04
- 3–010.3%9.70
- 1–09.6%10.40
- 2–19.0%11.07
- 1–17.7%13.07
- 3–17.5%13.35
- 4–06.4%15.60
- 4–14.7%21.48
- 0–04.4%22.68
- 2–23.3%30.46
Winning margin
31.8%
Lille by 3+
fair 3.14
21.8%
Lille by 2
fair 4.58
21.8%
Lille by 1
fair 4.58
16.1%
Draw
fair 6.22
6.1%
Nice by 1
fair 16.38
1.9%
Nice by 2
fair 53.63
0.5%
Nice by 3+
fair 211.28
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Lille goals
8%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
24%4+
Nice goals
48%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lille win | 75.5% | 75.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 16.1% | 16.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Nice win | 8.4% | 8.7% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.3% | 62.2% | +0.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 47.7% | 48.1% | -0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Lille | 2.49 | 2.47 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Nice | 0.73 | 0.74 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lille win75.5%1.32
- Draw16.1%6.22
- Nice win8.4%11.84
- Double chance Lille or draw91.6%1.09
- Double chance Lille or Nice83.9%1.19
- Double chance Nice or draw24.5%4.08
- Draw no bet Lille89.9%1.11
- Draw no bet Nice10.1%9.94
Goals
- Over 0.595.6%1.05
- Over 1.583.4%1.20
- Over 2.562.3%1.61
- Over 3.540.0%2.50
- Over 4.522.2%4.51
- Under 1.516.6%6.04
- Under 2.537.7%2.65
- Under 3.560.0%1.67
Both teams to score
- Yes47.7%2.09
- No52.3%1.91
- Yes and over 2.540.1%2.50
- Lille win and yes31.5%3.17
- Draw and yes11.7%8.56
- Nice win and yes4.5%22.07
Team goals
- Lille over 0.591.7%1.09
- Lille over 1.571.0%1.41
- Lille over 2.545.3%2.21
- Nice over 0.551.6%1.94
- Nice over 1.516.5%6.06
- Nice over 2.53.7%26.70
- Lille clean sheet48.4%2.07
- Nice clean sheet8.3%12.02
- Lille win to nil43.9%2.28
- Nice win to nil3.9%25.57
Handicap
- Lille −1.553.6%1.86
- Lille −2.531.8%3.14
- Nice +1.546.4%2.16
- Nice +2.568.2%1.47
- Nice −1.52.3%42.77
- Lille +1.597.7%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored261
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result42.3%
1X2 Brier0.574
Over 2.5 called right54.4%
BTTS called right53.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 40 | 37.9% | 52.5% |
| 40–50% | 83 | 45.0% | 45.8% |
| 50–60% | 63 | 54.2% | 50.8% |
| 60–70% | 41 | 64.5% | 70.7% |
| 70–80% | 25 | 73.9% | 68.0% |
| 80%+ | 9 | 86.9% | 88.9% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 207 of 261 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5861 | 0.5780 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.7% | 41.6% |
| Favourite won | 53.1% | 54.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 207 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✓Lens 3–2 Toulouse58·23·19
- ✓Lyon 2–0 Lorient51·27·22
- ✓Toulouse 0–4 Lille27·30·43
- ✗Nice 1–1 LE Havre46·27·27
- ✓Rennes 2–1 Angers67·20·12
- ✗Auxerre 0–0 Nantes53·27·20
- ✓Marseille 3–1 Metz69·19·12
- ✗Paris FC 4–1 Monaco22·25·53
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 261 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.