Liverpool
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Liverpool67.5%fair odds 1.48
Draw19.2%fair odds 5.22
Bournemouth13.4%fair odds 7.48
Expected goals2.29 – 0.93total 3.22
Likeliest score2–010.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Bournemouth
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Liverpool ↓ · Bournemouth → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Liverpool goals, columns Bournemouth goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.5%9.57
- 2–19.7%10.26
- 1–19.0%11.17
- 1–08.7%11.53
- 3–08.0%12.52
- 3–17.4%13.44
- 4–04.6%21.86
- 2–24.5%22.03
- 0–04.4%22.56
- 4–14.3%23.45
Winning margin
24.7%
Liverpool by 3+
fair 4.05
20.2%
Liverpool by 2
fair 4.95
22.6%
Liverpool by 1
fair 4.43
19.2%
Draw
fair 5.22
8.9%
Bournemouth by 1
fair 11.22
3.3%
Bournemouth by 2
fair 29.95
1.1%
Bournemouth by 3+
fair 89.25
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
12%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
22%5+
Liverpool goals
10%0
23%1
27%2
20%3
20%4+
Bournemouth goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 67.5% | 65.3% | +2.2 pp |
| Draw | 19.2% | 20.8% | -1.6 pp |
| Bournemouth win | 13.4% | 13.9% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 56.6% | +5.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.9% | 51.1% | +3.8 pp |
| Expected goals Liverpool | 2.29 | 2.09 | +0.20 |
| Expected goals Bournemouth | 0.93 | 0.86 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Liverpool win67.5%1.48
- Draw19.2%5.22
- Bournemouth win13.4%7.48
- Double chance Liverpool or draw86.6%1.15
- Double chance Liverpool or Bournemouth80.8%1.24
- Double chance Bournemouth or draw32.5%3.07
- Draw no bet Liverpool83.5%1.20
- Draw no bet Bournemouth16.5%6.05
Goals
- Over 0.595.6%1.05
- Over 1.583.6%1.20
- Over 2.562.5%1.60
- Over 3.540.3%2.48
- Over 4.522.4%4.47
- Under 1.516.4%6.11
- Under 2.537.5%2.67
- Under 3.559.7%1.67
Both teams to score
- Yes54.9%1.82
- No45.1%2.22
- Yes and over 2.546.0%2.17
- Liverpool win and yes32.5%3.07
- Draw and yes14.7%6.79
- Bournemouth win and yes7.7%13.00
Team goals
- Liverpool over 0.589.9%1.11
- Liverpool over 1.566.7%1.50
- Liverpool over 2.540.2%2.49
- Bournemouth over 0.560.6%1.65
- Bournemouth over 1.523.9%4.18
- Bournemouth over 2.56.8%14.66
- Liverpool clean sheet39.4%2.54
- Bournemouth clean sheet10.1%9.89
- Liverpool win to nil34.9%2.86
- Bournemouth win to nil5.7%17.61
Handicap
- Liverpool −1.544.9%2.23
- Liverpool −2.524.7%4.05
- Bournemouth +1.555.1%1.81
- Bournemouth +2.575.3%1.33
- Bournemouth −1.54.5%22.42
- Liverpool +1.595.5%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.