Liverpool vs Bournemouth – 15 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 1 Fri, Aug 15 · 20:00 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool

4–2Full time

Bournemouth

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool were clear favourites.

Liverpool were the stronger side on L90 Strength (91 vs 70). Liverpool had ? days of rest, Bournemouth ? and had to travel 308 km.

Away travel308 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Liverpool67%

Draw19%

Bournemouth13%

Expected goals 2.29 – 0.93

Liverpool66%

Draw21%

Bournemouth14%

Expected goals 2.10 – 0.85

Liverpool68%

Draw19%

Bournemouth13%

Expected goals 2.30 – 0.92

Liverpool60%

Draw22%

Bournemouth18%

Expected goals 2.04 – 1.04

Liverpool65%

Draw21%

Bournemouth14%

Expected goals 2.09 – 0.86

Over 2.5 63% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.28
Matches 178

Team strength

Liverpool

Bournemouth

91 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

85 AttackIn forecast 83

84 DefenceIn forecast 82

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—

Defense risk—

Bournemouth

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Liverpool

Bournemouth

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

17.40 ShotsContext 13.10

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

29% On target shareContext 29%

12.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.20

74% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 8%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.13

12.70 Shots allowedContext 10.40

6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

3.00 BlocksContext 3.63

4.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

73% Save rateContext 72%

59% PossessionIn forecast 54%

524 PassesContext 429

447 Accurate passesContext 350

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.98

10.70 FoulsContext 13.90

9.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Bournemouth

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel308 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Bournemouth
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	10	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5I. Konaté 30J. Frimpong

10A. Mac Allister 8D. Szoboszlai

18C. Gakpo 7F. Wirtz 11Mohamed Salah

22H. Ekitiké

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Bournemouth Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 5M. Senesi 18B. Diakité 15A. Smith

12T. Adams

7D. Brooks 16M. Tavernier 8A. Scott 24A. Semenyo

9Evanilson

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Bournemouth Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool-0.3 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Bournemouth+0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home No home games yet this season.

Bournemouth · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

5 Liverpool wins0 draws1 Bournemouth wins

Goals per game3.50 – 0.33 Over 2.567% Both scored17% Clean sheets67% · 17%

1 Feb 2025Bournemouth0–2Liverpool
21 Sep 2024Liverpool3–0Bournemouth
21 Jan 2024Bournemouth0–4Liverpool
19 Aug 2023Liverpool3–1Bournemouth
11 Mar 2023Bournemouth1–0Liverpool
27 Aug 2022Liverpool9–0Bournemouth

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.22
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	63%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Liverpool	Bournemouth	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.22
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	63%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	55%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Bournemouth
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Liverpool	Bournemouth
Corners
Corners won	7.78	4.89
Corners conceded	3.11	4.33
Match total	10.89	9.22
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.80
Opponent cards	1.60	2.20
Match total	2.90	5.00
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 178 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.71

Red cards0.16

Cards 5+34%

Fouls21.1

Penalties0.28

Home wins34%

Liverpool26 with this referee

Record12-12-2 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3 Pens for · against5 · 0 Reds1

D11 May 25H · Arsenal2–21
W23 Feb 25A · Manchester City2–00
W29 Dec 24A · West Ham5–00
D27 Oct 24A · Arsenal2–22
W28 Sep 24A · Wolves2–13

Bournemouth6 with this referee

Record0-2-4 Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.3 Pens for · against1 · 0

L14 Sep 24H · Chelsea0–16
L19 May 24A · Chelsea1–23
D9 Mar 24H · Sheffield Utd2–23
L23 Apr 23H · West Ham0–41
L29 Oct 22H · Tottenham2–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.