Lommel United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel32 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Lommel United—%
Draw—%
Genk—%
Weather (Lommel)
Forecast from 26 Mar
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Lommel United and Genk. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Genk
+1.27
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.14xG against0.87
-
Insight
Genk
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Genk
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Lommel United
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Genk
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Genk
1.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Lommel United
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Lommel UnitedGenk
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
32
AttackIn forecast
46
41
DefenceIn forecast
50
47
Form indexContext
49
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Lommel UnitedGenk
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
2.18
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
50%
Scored inContext
75%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
38%
10.75
ShotsContext
13.88
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
28%
On target shareContext
36%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.38
66%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.83
19.25
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.75
6.50
BlocksContext
5.29
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
76%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
407
PassesContext
499
339
Accurate passesContext
432
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.97
7.00
FoulsContext
11.25
10.75
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
2.14
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.87
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
50%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.50
ShotsContext
15.50
3.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
29%
On target shareContext
37%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
66%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.75
18.80
Shots allowedContext
13.40
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
5.80
BlocksContext
5.11
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
75%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
403
PassesContext
497
331
Accurate passesContext
429
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.01
7.20
FoulsContext
11.30
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lommel United
WLLDW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km219 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Genk
WDDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel32 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lommel United |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 3 Apr | 7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 3 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 32 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 219 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lommel United
Last XI · not confirmed
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye
8Nicolas Rommens
3T. Eyoma
2J. van Duiven
44I. Dada-Mascoll
15Lucas Schoofs
11S. Appuah
10Tom Reyners
7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu
Genk
Last XI · not confirmed
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe
44J. Kongolo
6M. Smets
20K. Amaro
8B. Heynen
38D. Heymans
4B. Tahirović
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg
17R. Durosinmi
10J. Ito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lommel United
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Genk
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Lommel United · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Genk · Away
0.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Lommel United | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| SK Beveren | W 3–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 4–0 H | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Lommel United | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 3.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 75% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 38% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Lommel United | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 4.40 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 20% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lommel United | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.88 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.88 | 5.88 | |
| Match total | 11.38 | 9.76 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 88% 7/8 | 88% 7/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.63 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.63 | 3.88 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Lommel United | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.60 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 10.00 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Lommel United7 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Genk8 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Lommel United9 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
0-15
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
3
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
Next fixtures Belgian Pro League
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