Lorient vs Auxerre – 1 Mar 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 24 Sun, Mar 1 · 16:15 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient

Lorient 9th · 32 pts · 23 played WWLWD

2–2Full time

Auxerre 16th · 17 pts · 23 played LDDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lorient were slight favourites.

Lorient were the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 22). Lorient had 7 days of rest, Auxerre 7.1 and had to travel 519 km.

Away travel519 kmRest days7 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2

Lorient50%

Draw27%

Auxerre24%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.01

Lorient51%

Draw25%

Auxerre23%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.06

Lorient50%

Draw27%

Auxerre23%

Expected goals 1.56 – 0.98

Lorient43%

Draw28%

Auxerre30%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.13

Lorient50%

Draw26%

Auxerre24%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.04

Over 2.5 48% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lorient)

No weather data yet

RefereeRuddy Buquet

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 71

Team strength

Lorient

Auxerre

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

28 AttackIn forecast 39

45 DefenceIn forecast 25

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Auxerre

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lorient

Auxerre

1.39 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.74

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 0.99

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

70% Scored inContext 43%

22% Clean sheetsContext 22%

11.35 ShotsContext 10.35

3.61 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29

32% On target shareContext 29%

7.26 Shots in the boxContext 6.43

64% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 7%

2.18 OffsidesContext 2.23

10.09 Shots allowedContext 11.17

3.91 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.57

2.86 BlocksContext 2.89

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.26

64% Save rateContext 71%

45% PossessionIn forecast 44%

420 PassesContext 372

356 Accurate passesContext 301

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.76

9.57 FoulsContext 13.13

13.96 Fouls sufferedContext 14.26

1.74 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 23 and 23 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17

+0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

80% Scored inContext 40%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.80 ShotsContext 10.40

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.25

33% On target shareContext 25%

7.30 Shots in the boxContext 6.78

62% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 10%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.60 Shots allowedContext 10.80

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.00 BlocksContext 3.13

2.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

75% Save rateContext 70%

47% PossessionIn forecast 44%

436 PassesContext 380

372 Accurate passesContext 309

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.83

7.90 FoulsContext 13.00

12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 13.90

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,878 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Auxerre

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel519 km478 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lorient	Auxerre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Feb	7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	519 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,878 km	478 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

2Igor Silva 3M. Talbi 5B. Meïté

44D. Yongwa 6L. Abergel 8Noah Cadiou 11T. Le Bris

10P. Pagis 17J. Makengo

12B. Dieng

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Auxerre Confirmed XI

4-4-2

16D. Léon(G)

14G. Mensah 24B. Okoh 20S. Diomandé 29M. Senaya

22F. Oppegård 42E. Owusu 5K. Danois 7J. Casimir

19D. Namaso 10L. Sinayoko

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lorient Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Auxerre Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lorient-0.4 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Auxerre+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home 2.00points per game · 11 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.45

Auxerre · Away 0.55points per game · 11 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-7
Scored: 0.64
Conceded: 1.64

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Lorient	Auxerre
Nice	D 3–3 AW 3–1 H	L 1–3 A
Angers	W 2–0 HL 0–2 A	L 0–2 A
Stade Brestois 29	L 0–2 AD 3–3 H	L 0–2 A
Nantes	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Rennes	W 2–0 AW 4–0 H	L 0–3 HD 2–2 A
Monaco	W 3–1 AW 3–1 H	L 1–2 H
Metz	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 AW 3–1 H
Strasbourg	D 0–0 A	L 0–3 A
Lyon	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 H
Toulouse	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Lens	L 0–3 A	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H
Paris Saint Germain	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 HL 0–2 A
Paris FC	L 0–2 A	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A
LE Havre	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 H
Marseille	L 0–4 A	L 0–1 H
Lille	L 1–7 H	L 3–4 H
Points	32 of 66 · 1.45 per game	14 of 66 · 0.64 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 Lorient wins0 draws2 Auxerre wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets0% · 67%

17 Aug 2025Auxerre1–0Lorient
26 Feb 2023Lorient0–1Auxerre
16 Sep 2022Auxerre1–3Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lorient	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.39	0.74
Conceded per game	1.57	1.43
Match goals	2.96	2.17	2.58
Over 1.5	87%	57%
Over 2.5	43%	39%	48%
Over 3.5	35%	22%
Both teams scored	52%	35%	51%
Clean sheets	22%	22%
Failed to score	30%	57%
Games	23	23

	Lorient	Auxerre	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.00
Conceded per game	0.90	1.40
Match goals	2.60	2.40	2.58
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	48%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	51%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lorient	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	3.52	4.61
Corners conceded	4.62	4.39
Match total	8.14	9.00	9.16
Over 8.5	38% 8/21	48% 11/23
Over 9.5	33% 7/21	35% 8/23
Over 10.5	24% 5/21	26% 6/23
Cards
Cards	1.78	2.26
Opponent cards	2.13	2.74
Match total	3.91	5.00	4.01
Over 3.5	52% 12/23	74% 17/23
Over 4.5	39% 9/23	48% 11/23

	Lorient	Auxerre	League
Corners
Corners won	3.40	4.40
Corners conceded	5.70	4.30
Match total	9.10	8.70	9.16
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.40
Match total	3.10	4.40	4.01
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ruddy Buquet 71 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.85league 3.70

Red cards0.41league 0.29

Cards 5+44%league 36%

Fouls23.9league 23.9

Penalties0.35league 0.40

Home wins42%league 50%

Lorient7 with this referee

Record3-3-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.9 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1

D23 Nov 25A · Nantes1–11
W27 Sep 25H · Monaco3–12
D19 Mar 23A · Nice1–13
W16 Sep 22A · Auxerre3–11
D14 May 22A · Bordeaux0–04

Auxerre3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L29 Oct 25A · Strasbourg0–31
L16 Sep 22H · Lorient1–33
D14 Aug 22H · Angers2–25

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.