Lorient
Attack−14%
Defense risk+9%
Our take
Monaco were slight favourites.
Monaco were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lorient. Monaco were without L. Camara. Lorient had 7.9 days of rest, Monaco 7.9 and had to travel 948 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel948 kmRest days7.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Lorient30%
Draw26%
Monaco44%
Lorient29%
Draw27%
Monaco45%
Lorient29%
Draw26%
Monaco44%
Lorient24%
Draw25%
Monaco51%
Lorient30%
Draw26%
Monaco44%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lorient)
16°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 20 km/h
- Humidity 45%
Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 69
Team strength
Lorient
Monaco
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
28
AttackIn forecast
45
45
DefenceIn forecast
56
36
Form indexContext
84
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMonaco
Attack+3%
Defense risk−17%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
LorientMonaco
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
83%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.17
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
40%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
6.83
68%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
15%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.80
13.67
Shots allowedContext
13.67
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
4.67
BlocksContext
3.83
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
80%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
483
PassesContext
479
410
Accurate passesContext
416
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.03
9.17
FoulsContext
10.83
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.74
80%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.30
ShotsContext
11.60
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
36%
On target shareContext
38%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
64%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.90
Shots allowedContext
13.00
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.33
BlocksContext
3.67
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
78%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
443
PassesContext
492
377
Accurate passesContext
424
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.91
9.00
FoulsContext
11.30
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lorient
LWDLW
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 36 · 7 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +0.0 vs expected
Monaco
WWDWD
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel948 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 84 · 11 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lorient |
Monaco |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 948 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
95S. Touré
3M. Talbi
32N. Adjei
43Arsène Kouassi
62A. Avom
8Noah Cadiou
20D. Sylla
33Gabin Bernardeau
17J. Makengo
18I. Baldé
Monaco
Confirmed XI
1L. Hrádecký(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
22M. Salisu
72S. Sané
2Vanderson
6D. Zakaria
8M. Camara
10A. Golovin
31Ansu Fati
18T. Minamino
11M. Abline
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lorient
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −5.4% · Defence line −4.8% of weighted minutes
- DEF P. Katseris Rotation 6.81 Def −3.8%
- MID N. Mbamba Rotation 6.93 Att −2.7% Def −1.1%
- ATT Mamadou Koné Rotation 6.51 Att −2.7%
Monaco
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −16.6% · Defence line −8.4% of weighted minutes
- MID L. Camara Starter 7.14 Att −13.0% Def −6.0%
- DEF E. Dier Rotation 6.93 Def −1.9%
- ATT P. Brunner Rotation 7.12 Att −2.6%
- MID S. Idumbo Rotation 6.85 Att −1.0% Def −0.5%
Total impact vs full squads
- Lorient+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Monaco-0.5 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Lorient · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Monaco · Away
2.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Lorient | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | D 2–2 H | D 2–2 H |
| Lens | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
3 Lorient wins4 draws1 Monaco wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.38
Over 2.575%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 13%
- 16 Jan 2026Monaco1–3Lorient
- 27 Sep 2025Lorient3–1Monaco
- 17 Mar 2024Monaco2–2Lorient
- 17 Sep 2023Lorient2–2Monaco
- 16 Apr 2023Monaco3–1Lorient
- 11 Jan 2023Lorient2–2Monaco
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lorient | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Lorient | Monaco | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lorient | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.80 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.16 | 3.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Lorient | Monaco | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 9.33 | 9.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 69 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.43league 3.20
Red cards0.29league 0.14
Cards 5+30%league 25%
Fouls26.2league 23.7
Penalties0.36league 0.37
Home wins36%league 42%
Lorient6 with this referee
Record1-3-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D19 Oct 25H · Stade Brestois 293–33
- L24 Apr 24H · Paris Saint Germain1–41
- W11 Feb 24H · Reims2–01
- D17 Sep 23H · Monaco2–20
- L23 Apr 23H · Toulouse0–13
Monaco9 with this referee
Record4-4-1
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D24 Jan 26A · LE Havre0–03
- D7 Mar 25A · Toulouse1–13
- D10 Jan 25A · Nantes2–20
- W28 Sep 24H · Montpellier2–14
- D17 Sep 23A · Lorient2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lorient6 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Monaco6 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
Monaco10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
4
0-15
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
6
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
