Lorient vs Nantes – 31 Jan 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 20 Sat, Jan 31 · 18:00 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient

Lorient 9th · 25 pts · 19 played WDDWW

2–1Full time

Nantes 16th · 14 pts · 19 played LLWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lorient were slight favourites.

Lorient were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 18). Lorient had 7.1 days of rest, Nantes 6.2 and had to travel 149 km.

Away travel149 kmRest days7.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 2

Lorient55%

Draw24%

Nantes21%

Expected goals 1.80 – 1.02

Lorient54%

Draw25%

Nantes21%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.02

Lorient54%

Draw25%

Nantes21%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.00

Lorient47%

Draw26%

Nantes27%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.15

Lorient56%

Draw23%

Nantes21%

Expected goals 1.90 – 1.07

Over 2.5 54% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lorient)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.40
Matches 78

Team strength

Lorient

Nantes

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

28 AttackIn forecast 24

45 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Lorient

Nantes

1.32 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.95

1.58 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.79

1.44 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.54

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext +0.04

68% Scored inContext 63%

21% Clean sheetsContext 16%

11.53 ShotsContext 9.79

3.74 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.29

32% On target shareContext 30%

7.58 Shots in the boxContext 5.89

67% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 10%

2.38 OffsidesContext 1.75

10.26 Shots allowedContext 14.84

4.05 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.79

2.88 BlocksContext 4.69

2.94 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

65% Save rateContext 68%

42% PossessionIn forecast 44%

392 PassesContext 359

330 Accurate passesContext 288

84% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.74

9.89 FoulsContext 11.63

14.26 Fouls sufferedContext 13.32

1.74 Yellow cardsContext 1.74

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.05

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

80% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.80 ShotsContext 10.30

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

32% On target shareContext 36%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

65% Box shareContext 60%

12% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.70 Shots allowedContext 13.60

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.00 BlocksContext 3.88

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

77% Save rateContext 60%

39% PossessionIn forecast 45%

355 PassesContext 357

294 Accurate passesContext 286

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.67

8.40 FoulsContext 12.20

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

0.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km265 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nantes

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel149 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lorient	Nantes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 24 Jan	6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	149 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	265 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

38Y. Mvogo(G)

2Igor Silva 3M. Talbi 5B. Meïté

43Arsène Kouassi 6L. Abergel 8Noah Cadiou 11T. Le Bris

10P. Pagis 17J. Makengo

12B. Dieng

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Nantes Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1A. Lopes(G)

3N. Cozza 2Ali Yusuf 98K. Amian

66L. Leroux 8J. Lepenant 28I. Sissoko 18F. Centonze

10M. Abline 20R. Cabella

31M. Abdalla

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lorient Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nantes Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Lorient+1.1 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Nantes-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home 1.78points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-4-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.67

Nantes · Away 1.00points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-4
Scored: 0.89
Conceded: 1.44

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Lorient	Nantes
Rennes	W 2–0 AW 4–0 H	D 2–2 H
Monaco	W 3–1 AW 3–1 H	L 3–5 H
Metz	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 H
Strasbourg	D 0–0 A	L 0–1 A
Lyon	W 1–0 H	L 0–3 A
Nice	W 3–1 H	L 1–4 HL 0–1 A
Toulouse	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 A
Lens	L 0–3 A	L 1–2 H
Paris Saint Germain	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 H
Angers	L 0–2 A	L 1–4 A
Stade Brestois 29	D 3–3 H	D 0–0 A
Paris FC	L 0–2 A	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
LE Havre	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Marseille	L 0–4 A	W 2–0 A
Lille	L 1–7 H	L 0–2 H
Auxerre	L 0–1 A	W 1–0 H
Points	24 of 54 · 1.33 per game	13 of 54 · 0.72 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Lorient wins1 draws5 Nantes wins

Goals per game1.29 – 2.14 Over 2.543% Both scored57% Clean sheets0% · 43%

23 Nov 2025Nantes1–1Lorient
24 Feb 2024Lorient0–1Nantes
23 Sep 2023Nantes5–3Lorient
12 Feb 2023Nantes1–0Lorient
11 Sep 2022Lorient3–2Nantes
23 Jan 2022Nantes4–2Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lorient	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.32	0.95
Conceded per game	1.58	1.79
Match goals	2.89	2.74	2.82
Over 1.5	84%	74%
Over 2.5	42%	47%	54%
Over 3.5	37%	26%
Both teams scored	53%	53%	54%
Clean sheets	21%	16%
Failed to score	32%	37%
Games	19	19

	Lorient	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.10
Conceded per game	0.90	2.40
Match goals	2.20	3.50	2.82
Over 1.5	80%	100%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	54%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	54%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lorient	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.35	3.11
Corners conceded	4.76	6.06
Match total	8.11	9.17	9.20
Over 8.5	35% 6/17	67% 12/18
Over 9.5	29% 5/17	50% 9/18
Over 10.5	24% 4/17	44% 8/18
Cards
Cards	1.79	1.79
Opponent cards	2.05	2.21
Match total	3.84	4.00	3.94
Over 3.5	53% 10/19	63% 12/19
Over 4.5	37% 7/19	37% 7/19

	Lorient	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.22	2.78
Corners conceded	5.89	5.00
Match total	9.11	7.78	9.20
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	0.70	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	2.20
Match total	2.60	4.20	3.94
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 78 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.74league 3.61

Red cards0.26league 0.31

Cards 5+37%league 35%

Fouls25.0league 24.2

Penalties0.40league 0.43

Home wins40%league 49%

Lorient17 with this referee

Record5-5-7 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds3

L12 May 24A · Marseille1–34
D17 Mar 24A · Monaco2–22
L17 Dec 23H · Strasbourg1–23
D4 Nov 23H · Lens0–03
D12 Aug 23A · Paris Saint Germain0–00

Nantes6 with this referee

Record1-2-3 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 1

L24 Aug 25A · Strasbourg0–12
L3 Nov 24H · Marseille1–21
W31 Mar 24A · Nice2–15
D12 Aug 22H · Lille1–11
D17 Apr 22H · Angers1–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.