Lorient
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lorient were slight favourites.
Lorient were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Lorient had 15 days of rest, Paris FC 14 and had to travel 441 km.
Away travel441 kmRest days15 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1
Lorient50%
Draw26%
Paris FC24%
Lorient55%
Draw25%
Paris FC21%
Lorient50%
Draw26%
Paris FC24%
Lorient43%
Draw27%
Paris FC30%
Lorient50%
Draw26%
Paris FC24%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lorient)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceGael Angoula
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 32
Team strength
Lorient
Paris FC
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
28
AttackIn forecast
46
45
DefenceIn forecast
38
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParis FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LorientParis FC
1.37
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.19
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.59
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
70%
Scored inContext
70%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
10.93
ShotsContext
11.37
3.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
33%
On target shareContext
31%
6.89
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
63%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.71
10.59
Shots allowedContext
11.93
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.85
2.96
BlocksContext
3.68
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.72
64%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
423
PassesContext
473
359
Accurate passesContext
404
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.59
FoulsContext
10.78
13.41
Fouls sufferedContext
11.07
1.74
Yellow cardsContext
1.85
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.65
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.60
ShotsContext
10.60
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
35%
On target shareContext
34%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.90
58%
Box shareContext
64%
18%
ConversionContext
9%
1.38
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.60
Shots allowedContext
13.00
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.40
BlocksContext
3.90
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
70%
Save rateContext
76%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
459
PassesContext
433
392
Accurate passesContext
361
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.82
8.70
FoulsContext
10.80
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lorient
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Paris FC
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel441 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lorient |
Paris FC |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 441 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 5.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lorient
Confirmed XI
38Y. Mvogo(G)
25A. Faye
3M. Talbi
5B. Meïté
43Arsène Kouassi
62A. Avom
8Noah Cadiou
11T. Le Bris
10P. Pagis
17J. Makengo
12B. Dieng
Paris FC
Confirmed XI
35K. Trapp(G)
19N. Sangui
5M. Mbow
42D. Coppola
17Adama Camara
21M. Lopez
33P. Lees-Melou
27M. Simon
18M. Munetsi
93N. Ikoné
9W. Geubbels
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lorient
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Paris FC
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lorient+0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Paris FC+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Lorient · Home
2.00points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-5-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.46
Paris FC · Away
1.07points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-6-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.36
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Lorient | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Lens | W 2–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–5 HL 1–2 A |
| Lille | D 1–1 AL 1–7 H | L 2–4 A |
| Auxerre | D 2–2 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Nice | D 3–3 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Angers | W 2–0 HL 0–2 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 0–2 AD 3–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Nantes | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Rennes | W 2–0 AW 4–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Monaco | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Metz | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 H |
| Strasbourg | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 AL 2–3 H |
| Lyon | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Marseille | L 0–4 A | D 2–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Points | 37 of 78 · 1.42 per game | 28 of 78 · 1.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Lorient wins0 draws1 Paris FC wins
Goals per game0.00 – 2.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 3 Oct 2025Paris FC2–0Lorient
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lorient | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.37 | 1.19 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.59 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 2.78 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 44% | 52% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 59% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Lorient | Paris FC | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.20 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lorient | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.28 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.76 | 5.37 | |
| Match total | 8.04 | 9.70 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 10/25 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 8/25 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 5/25 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.26 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.04 | 3.70 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 16/27 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 12/27 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Lorient | Paris FC | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.10 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 9.80 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.00 | 3.99 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gael Angoula France · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.06league 3.70
Red cards0.16league 0.28
Cards 5+19%league 37%
Fouls21.1league 23.8
Penalties0.34league 0.37
Home wins50%league 48%
Lorient4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.0.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L7 Feb 26A · Stade Brestois 290–20
- D14 Dec 25A · Strasbourg0–00
- L28 Apr 24H · Toulouse1–21
- W22 Oct 23H · Rennes2–10
Paris FC2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L19 Oct 25A · Lens1–22
- W31 Aug 25H · Metz3–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lorient27 games · scored 37 · conceded 41
3
5
0-15
4
6
16-30
9
4
31-45
5
9
46-60
7
3
61-75
9
14
76-90
Paris FC27 games · scored 32 · conceded 43
4
3
0-15
6
8
16-30
5
7
31-45
4
8
46-60
3
4
61-75
10
13
76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
