Ligue 1 Gameweek 31 Sat, May 8 · 16:00 Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat, Lorient
Lorient 7th · 11 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Strasbourg 14th · 7 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel829 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Lorient—%
Draw—%
Strasbourg—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Lorient)

Forecast from 23 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lorient and Strasbourg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

LorientStrasbourg
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 45
28 AttackIn forecast 40
45 DefenceIn forecast 37
69 Form indexContext 24
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lorient

Attack—
Defense risk—

Strasbourg

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LorientStrasbourg
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71
0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.14
1.16 xGVia Att/Def 0.86
1.08 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.18
-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.85
86% Scored inContext 86%
57% Clean sheetsContext 0%
9.86 ShotsContext 12.29
3.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
35% On target shareContext 41%
6.71 Shots in the boxContext 8.14
70% Box shareContext 63%
10% ConversionContext 14%
1.25 OffsidesContext 2.00
13.86 Shots allowedContext 16.43
3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.14
4.71 BlocksContext 5.33
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.14
83% Save rateContext 67%
46% PossessionIn forecast 45%
482 PassesContext 435
408 Accurate passesContext 377
85% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.70
9.29 FoulsContext 11.14
15.14 Fouls sufferedContext 8.43
1.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.57
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10
1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.21
1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.93
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.79
80% Scored inContext 90%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
9.80 ShotsContext 12.50
3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
35% On target shareContext 42%
6.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.20
65% Box shareContext 63%
13% ConversionContext 16%
1.43 OffsidesContext 2.50
13.60 Shots allowedContext 16.70
3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00
4.78 BlocksContext 5.44
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
81% Save rateContext 70%
46% PossessionIn forecast 48%
458 PassesContext 454
390 Accurate passesContext 393
85% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.83 Team ratingContext 6.78
9.10 FoulsContext 10.80
13.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lorient
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,895 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Monaco1–01.2 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Paris FC1–01.4 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Le Mans1–21.3 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Toulouse2–21.6 xPts
  • W5 SepA · Lens1–00.6 xPts
Strasbourg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel829 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 24 · 4 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -2.3 vs expected
  • L17 OctH · Paris Saint Germain1–30.5 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Nice1–21.5 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Paris FC1–21.3 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Monaco1–11.4 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Estac Troyes6–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lorient Strasbourg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 1 May7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 1 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km829 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,895 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one88

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lorient Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Monaco (H) 1–0, 18 Oct
38Y. Mvogo(G)
95S. Touré 3M. Talbi 32N. Adjei
43Arsène Kouassi 62A. Avom 8Noah Cadiou 20D. Sylla
33Gabin Bernardeau 17J. Makengo
18I. Baldé
Strasbourg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Paris Saint Germain (H) 1–3, 17 Oct
1F. Jørgensen(G)
36Oso 31Karim Coulibaly 4J. Mitchell 16Genesis Antwi
21Pape Diop 14Dário Essugo
19Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé 10G. Reyna 80Gessime Yassine
40C. Harder

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lorient Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Strasbourg Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lorient · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Strasbourg · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
2.00
Conceded
2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentLorientStrasbourg
Monaco W 1–0 H D 1–1 H
Paris FC W 1–0 H L 1–2 A
Lens W 1–0 A W 2–1 H
Estac Troyes L 1–2 H W 6–2 A
Nice D 0–0 A L 1–2 A
Points10 of 15 · 2.00 per game7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Lorient wins3 draws3 Strasbourg wins
Goals per game1.13 – 1.50 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 38%
  • 26 Apr 2026Lorient2–3Strasbourg
  • 14 Dec 2025Strasbourg0–0Lorient
  • 18 Feb 2024Strasbourg1–3Lorient
  • 17 Dec 2023Lorient1–2Strasbourg
  • 3 Jun 2023Lorient2–1Strasbourg
  • 13 Nov 2022Strasbourg1–1Lorient

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LorientStrasbourgForecast
Scored per game 1.001.71
Conceded per game 0.862.14
Match goals 1.863.86
Over 1.5 43%100%
Over 2.5 43%86%
Over 3.5 14%43%
Both teams scored 43%86%
Clean sheets 57%0%
Failed to score 14%14%
Games77
LorientStrasbourgForecast
Scored per game 1.302.00
Conceded per game 1.002.10
Match goals 2.304.10
Over 1.5 60%100%
Over 2.5 50%80%
Over 3.5 30%40%
Both teams scored 40%90%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LorientStrasbourgLeague
Corners
Corners won3.003.00
Corners conceded5.174.80
Match total8.177.809.63
Over 8.533% 2/660% 3/5
Over 9.533% 2/60% 0/5
Over 10.533% 2/60% 0/5
Cards
Cards1.141.71
Opponent cards2.291.29
Match total3.433.003.47
Over 3.557% 4/743% 3/7
Over 4.543% 3/714% 1/7
LorientStrasbourgLeague
Corners
Corners won3.113.29
Corners conceded5.675.00
Match total8.788.299.63
Over 8.544% 4/971% 5/7
Over 9.544% 4/914% 1/7
Over 10.544% 4/90% 0/7
Cards
Cards1.301.70
Opponent cards2.001.30
Match total3.303.003.47
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Lorient7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
1 76-90
Strasbourg7 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
2 61-75
5 7 76-90
Lorient10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 20 · conceded 21
1 3 0-15
2 1 16-30
5 4 31-45
4 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
6 7 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Angers Toulouse May 816:00 Nice Marseille May 816:00 Rennes LE Havre May 816:00 Lorient Strasbourg May 816:00 Stade Brestois 29 Auxerre May 816:00 Paris FC Lille May 816:00 Lens Monaco May 816:00 Le Mans Estac Troyes May 816:00 Lyon Paris Saint Germain May 919:45