Ligue 1 Gameweek 31 Sat, May 8 · 16:00 Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers
Angers 15th · 7 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Toulouse 11th · 9 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel457 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Angers—%
Draw—%
Toulouse—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Angers)

Forecast from 23 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Angers and Toulouse. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

AngersToulouse
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
19 Current StrengthIn forecast 39
22 AttackIn forecast 45
12 DefenceIn forecast 49
16 Form indexContext 54
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Angers

Attack—
Defense risk—

Toulouse

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AngersToulouse
1.29 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71
2.14 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57
1.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.80
2.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39
-0.50 Goals minus xGContext -0.09
71% Scored inContext 71%
29% Clean sheetsContext 14%
13.29 ShotsContext 13.57
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57
23% On target shareContext 34%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00
68% Box shareContext 65%
10% ConversionContext 13%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.17
17.29 Shots allowedContext 14.43
6.57 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
3.86 BlocksContext 4.00
4.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.86
72% Save rateContext 65%
49% PossessionIn forecast 50%
420 PassesContext 500
353 Accurate passesContext 430
84% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.73 Team ratingContext 6.88
10.57 FoulsContext 15.43
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.57
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.39
1.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.21
80% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.10 ShotsContext 12.70
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50
25% On target shareContext 35%
8.30 Shots in the boxContext 8.11
68% Box shareContext 62%
10% ConversionContext 13%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.29
17.10 Shots allowedContext 12.80
6.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90
3.50 BlocksContext 4.33
4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60
73% Save rateContext 67%
46% PossessionIn forecast 48%
394 PassesContext 428
328 Accurate passesContext 366
83% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.71 Team ratingContext 6.87
10.00 FoulsContext 14.60
12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Angers
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,005 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 16 · 4 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Marseille2–51.0 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Stade Brestois 291–50.9 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · LE Havre0–01.2 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Rennes1–21.1 xPts
Toulouse
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel457 km1,121 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 54 · 8 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • W16 OctA · Le Mans3–01.4 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Monaco2–20.7 xPts
  • W19 SepH · LE Havre3–21.9 xPts
  • D12 SepA · Lorient2–21.1 xPts
  • L3 SepH · Lille0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Angers Toulouse
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 1 May7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 1 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km457 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,005 km1,121 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one88

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Angers Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Marseille (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1A. Lopes(G)
27L. Rao-Lisoa 34Maël Gernigon 24E. Biumla 2C. Arcus
8B. van den Boomen 14Y. Belkhdim
10M. Sbaï 6L. Mouton 18J. Allevinah
19A. El Ouazzani
Toulouse Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Le Mans (A) 3–0, 16 Oct
16G. Restes(G)
12C. Tapé 2R. Nicolaisen 3M. McKenzie 22R. Messali
14N. Sigur 23C. Cásseres
8T. Jørgensen 20C. Tengstedt 15A. Dønnum
13J. Russell-Rowe

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Angers Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Toulouse Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Angers · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.25
Toulouse · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-3-0
Scored
2.25
Conceded
1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentAngersToulouse
Stade Brestois 29 L 1–5 A D 2–2 A
LE Havre D 0–0 A W 3–2 H
Lille L 0–2 H L 0–1 H
Points1 of 9 · 0.33 per game4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Angers wins1 draws3 Toulouse wins
Goals per game0.83 – 1.67 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%
  • 8 Feb 2026Angers1–0Toulouse
  • 23 Nov 2025Toulouse0–1Angers
  • 2 Mar 2025Angers0–4Toulouse
  • 20 Oct 2024Toulouse1–1Angers
  • 12 Mar 2023Angers0–2Toulouse
  • 16 Oct 2022Toulouse3–2Angers

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

AngersToulouseForecast
Scored per game 1.291.71
Conceded per game 2.141.57
Match goals 3.433.29
Over 1.5 86%86%
Over 2.5 57%71%
Over 3.5 43%57%
Both teams scored 57%57%
Clean sheets 29%14%
Failed to score 29%29%
Games77
AngersToulouseForecast
Scored per game 1.201.60
Conceded per game 2.001.30
Match goals 3.202.90
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 50%70%
Over 3.5 40%40%
Both teams scored 70%60%
Clean sheets 20%20%
Failed to score 20%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AngersToulouseLeague
Corners
Corners won6.434.14
Corners conceded5.714.43
Match total12.148.579.63
Over 8.586% 6/743% 3/7
Over 9.571% 5/729% 2/7
Over 10.557% 4/729% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.711.57
Opponent cards1.571.43
Match total3.283.003.47
Over 3.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 4.529% 2/714% 1/7
AngersToulouseLeague
Corners
Corners won6.004.10
Corners conceded5.564.90
Match total11.569.009.63
Over 8.589% 8/950% 5/10
Over 9.567% 6/940% 4/10
Over 10.544% 4/940% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.902.00
Opponent cards1.701.30
Match total3.603.303.47
Over 3.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Angers7 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
2 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 5 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 61-75
1 2 76-90
Toulouse7 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1 0-15
2 16-30
3 31-45
7 46-60
2 3 61-75
2 3 76-90
Angers10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2 4 0-15
3 16-30
2 6 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
2 2 76-90
Toulouse9 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
2 0-15
3 16-30
1 3 31-45
7 46-60
2 4 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Angers Toulouse May 816:00 Nice Marseille May 816:00 Rennes LE Havre May 816:00 Lorient Strasbourg May 816:00 Stade Brestois 29 Auxerre May 816:00 Paris FC Lille May 816:00 Lens Monaco May 816:00 Le Mans Estac Troyes May 816:00 Lyon Paris Saint Germain May 919:45