Ludogorets
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 24). Ludogorets had 20.9 days of rest, Celta Vigo 5.2 and had to travel 2,853 km.
Away travel2,853 kmRest days20.9 · 5.2Matches / 14d0 · 1
Ludogorets23%
Draw25%
Celta Vigo52%
Ludogorets22%
Draw25%
Celta Vigo53%
Ludogorets22%
Draw25%
Celta Vigo53%
Ludogorets17%
Draw23%
Celta Vigo60%
Ludogorets23%
Draw25%
Celta Vigo52%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Razgrad)
No weather data yet
Referee · HungaryBalazs Berke
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 13
Team strength
Ludogorets
Celta Vigo
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
27
AttackIn forecast
36
28
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LudogoretsCelta Vigo
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.25
2.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.90
75%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
15.75
ShotsContext
14.00
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.75
27%
On target shareContext
34%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.75
52%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.25
Shots allowedContext
10.75
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
60%
Save rateContext
75%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
406
PassesContext
512
337
Accurate passesContext
450
83%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.25
FoulsContext
13.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.75
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
60%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.75
ShotsContext
11.90
5.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
29%
On target shareContext
35%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
56%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.89
13.38
Shots allowedContext
11.30
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.67
BlocksContext
3.33
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
59%
Save rateContext
77%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
390
PassesContext
496
319
Accurate passesContext
428
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.25
FoulsContext
12.70
11.88
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ludogorets
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Celta Vigo
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel2,853 km1,001 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ludogorets |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov | 5.2La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 2,853 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 1,001 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ludogorets
Confirmed XI
39H. Bonmann(G)
3A. Nedyalkov
4Dinis Almeida
24O. Verdon
17Son
23Deroy Duarte
30Pedro Naressi
82I. Yordanov
20A. Camara
11Caio Vidal
14P. Stanić
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
1Iván Villar(G)
21M. Ristić
12Manu Fernández
29Yoel Lago
3Óscar Mingueza
28Ángel Arcos
6I. Moriba
14Damián Rodríguez
39Jones El-Abdellaoui
7Borja Iglesias
9Ferran Jutglà
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ludogorets
Absences are shown before kick-off
Celta Vigo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Ludogorets+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Celta Vigo-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Ludogorets · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Celta Vigo · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Ludogorets | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 2.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Ludogorets | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.25 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 3.20 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ludogorets | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.75 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.00 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.50 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Ludogorets | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.01 | 7.90 | 9.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 5.00 | 4.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Balazs Berke Hungary · 13 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 4.04
Red cards0.46league 0.17
Cards 5+38%league 43%
Fouls23.0league 24.8
Penalties0.23league 0.39
Home wins54%league 49%
LudogoretsNo previous matches with this referee.
Celta VigoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Ludogorets4 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Celta Vigo4 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Ludogorets10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
2
0-15
5
16-30
5
31-45
4
46-60
3
61-75
6
4
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 19 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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