Ludogorets
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Ludogorets22.8%fair odds 4.40
Draw24.8%fair odds 4.03
Celta Vigo52.4%fair odds 1.91
Expected goals1.08 – 1.75total 2.82
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Ludogorets ↓ · Celta Vigo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Ludogorets goals, columns Celta Vigo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.49
- 0–19.8%10.21
- 1–29.8%10.25
- 0–29.1%11.03
- 0–06.5%15.28
- 2–16.0%16.62
- 1–05.8%17.20
- 1–35.7%17.62
- 0–35.3%18.96
- 2–25.2%19.05
Winning margin
2.5%
Ludogorets by 3+
fair 39.46
6.2%
Ludogorets by 2
fair 16.18
14.0%
Ludogorets by 1
fair 7.12
24.8%
Draw
fair 4.03
23.1%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 4.32
16.3%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 6.15
13.1%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 7.65
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Ludogorets goals
34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+
Celta Vigo goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets win | 22.8% | 22.8% | -0.1 pp |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.2% | -0.4 pp |
| Celta Vigo win | 52.4% | 52.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 52.1% | +1.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.0% | 53.9% | +1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Ludogorets | 1.08 | 1.05 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 1.75 | 1.70 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Ludogorets win22.8%4.40
- Draw24.8%4.03
- Celta Vigo win52.4%1.91
- Double chance Ludogorets or draw47.6%2.10
- Double chance Ludogorets or Celta Vigo75.2%1.33
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw77.2%1.29
- Draw no bet Ludogorets30.3%3.31
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo69.7%1.43
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.577.8%1.28
- Over 2.553.6%1.87
- Over 3.531.3%3.20
- Over 4.515.6%6.42
- Under 1.522.2%4.51
- Under 2.546.4%2.15
- Under 3.568.7%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes55.0%1.82
- No45.0%2.22
- Yes and over 2.543.2%2.31
- Ludogorets win and yes11.8%8.45
- Draw and yes18.3%5.48
- Celta Vigo win and yes24.9%4.02
Team goals
- Ludogorets over 0.565.9%1.52
- Ludogorets over 1.529.2%3.42
- Ludogorets over 2.59.5%10.54
- Celta Vigo over 0.582.5%1.21
- Celta Vigo over 1.552.1%1.92
- Celta Vigo over 2.525.5%3.93
- Ludogorets clean sheet17.5%5.73
- Celta Vigo clean sheet34.1%2.93
- Ludogorets win to nil10.9%9.16
- Celta Vigo win to nil27.5%3.63
Handicap
- Ludogorets −1.58.7%11.47
- Ludogorets −2.52.5%39.46
- Celta Vigo +1.591.3%1.10
- Celta Vigo +2.597.5%1.03
- Celta Vigo −1.529.3%3.41
- Ludogorets +1.570.7%1.41
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored72
Favourite won54.2%
Avg chance given to result40.1%
1X2 Brier0.587
Over 2.5 called right47.2%
BTTS called right48.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 8 | 38.5% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 31 | 44.5% | 45.2% |
| 50–60% | 26 | 54.8% | 73.1% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.6% | 20.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 54 of 72 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5852 | 0.5901 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.3% | 40.6% |
| Favourite won | 53.7% | 61.1% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 54 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 72 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.