Ludogorets vs Real Betis – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 17:45 Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad

Ludogorets 8th · 3 pts · 1 played W

0–2Full time

Real Betis 16th · 1 pts · 1 played D

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Betis were slight favourites.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 27). Absences weigh more on Real Betis. Ludogorets had 7.9 days of rest, Real Betis 3.9 and had to travel 2,813 km.

Away travel2,813 kmRest days7.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 3

Ludogorets23%

Draw24%

Real Betis53%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.78

Ludogorets22%

Draw25%

Real Betis54%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.74

Ludogorets21%

Draw24%

Real Betis54%

Expected goals 1.05 – 1.80

Ludogorets17%

Draw22%

Real Betis60%

Expected goals 0.98 – 2.00

Ludogorets23%

Draw25%

Real Betis52%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.73

Over 2.5 55% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Razgrad)

No weather data yet

Referee · AustriaJulian Weinberger

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 17

Team strength

Ludogorets

Real Betis

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 72

27 AttackIn forecast 79

28 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ludogorets

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ludogorets

Real Betis

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

— xGVia Att/Def 1.12

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

— Goals minus xGContext +0.38

70% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.50 ShotsContext 14.10

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

35% On target shareContext 32%

9.25 Shots in the boxContext 8.70

65% Box shareContext 59%

8% ConversionContext 11%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.33

12.83 Shots allowedContext 11.00

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.40 BlocksContext 3.00

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

72% Save rateContext 72%

49% PossessionIn forecast 49%

375 PassesContext 466

303 Accurate passesContext 399

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.91

14.00 FoulsContext 10.60

11.83 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ludogorets

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km3,306 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Betis

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel2,813 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load35%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Ludogorets	Real Betis
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep	3.9La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,813 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,306 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21.1	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ludogorets Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1S. Padt(G)

3A. Nedyalkov 4Dinis Almeida 15E. Kurtulus 17Son

14P. Stanić 26F. Kaloč 30Pedro Naressi

11Caio Vidal 29E. Bille 77Erick Marcus

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Álvaro Vallés(G)

23J. Firpo 16Valentín Gómez 4Natan 24Aitor Ruibal

21Marc Roca 20G. Lo Celso 6Sergi Altimira

17Rodrigo Riquelme 11C. Bakambu 9L. Ávila

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Ludogorets Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Betis Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Ludogorets+1.3 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Real Betis-1.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Ludogorets · Home No home games yet this season.

Real Betis · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Ludogorets	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	3.00	4.00	2.88
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Ludogorets	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.63
Conceded per game	1.00	1.13
Match goals	3.00	2.75	2.88
Over 1.5	100%	88%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	38%
Both teams scored	100%	75%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	8

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Ludogorets	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	3.00
Corners conceded	2.00	3.00
Match total	5.00	6.00	9.28
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	3.00
Opponent cards	3.00	2.00
Match total	6.00	5.00	4.50
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Ludogorets	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	3.17	4.60
Corners conceded	5.83	4.50
Match total	9.00	9.10	9.28
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.60
Opponent cards	2.90	2.70
Match total	5.30	4.30	4.50
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Julian Weinberger Austria · 17 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.94league 4.39

Red cards0.12league 0.11

Cards 5+41%league 56%

Fouls23.5league 26.3

Penalties0.29league 0.22

Home wins47%league 39%

Ludogorets

No previous matches with this referee.

Real Betis

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.