Lyon
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 22). Absences weigh more on Lyon. Lyon had 3 days of rest, Nantes 7.1 and had to travel 524 km.
Away travel524 kmRest days3 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lyon68%
Draw19%
Nantes12%
Lyon68%
Draw20%
Nantes12%
Lyon69%
Draw19%
Nantes12%
Lyon61%
Draw22%
Nantes16%
Lyon68%
Draw20%
Nantes13%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceAbdelatif Kherradji
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.48
- Matches 23
Team strength
Lyon
Nantes
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
55
AttackIn forecast
24
56
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
LyonNantes
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.92
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
85%
Scored inContext
54%
54%
Clean sheetsContext
15%
11.46
ShotsContext
9.69
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.82
35%
On target shareContext
25%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.62
63%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.82
OffsidesContext
1.63
11.00
Shots allowedContext
15.31
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.77
4.33
BlocksContext
4.91
2.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.46
70%
Save rateContext
73%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
452
PassesContext
362
389
Accurate passesContext
291
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.76
13.92
FoulsContext
11.38
14.15
Fouls sufferedContext
12.85
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.69
0.23
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
0.87
0.95
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
70%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.40
ShotsContext
10.80
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
32%
On target shareContext
24%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.30
59%
Box shareContext
59%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.44
OffsidesContext
1.67
9.30
Shots allowedContext
15.20
3.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.00
BlocksContext
4.38
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
69%
Save rateContext
70%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
488
PassesContext
359
422
Accurate passesContext
290
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.70
FoulsContext
12.00
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,771 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Nantes
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel524 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Nantes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 13 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 7.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 524 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,771 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
1D. Greif(G)
3N. Tagliafico
19M. Niakhaté
6F. Tessmann
16Abner
39Mathys de Carvalho
23T. Morton
33H. Hateboer
8C. Tolisso
10P. Šulc
20M. Satriano
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
3N. Cozza
78Tylel Tati
6C. Awaziem
98K. Amian
8J. Lepenant
5H. Kwon
80J. Mwanga
10M. Abline
19Y. El-Arabi
15M. Lahdo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nantes
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Nantes+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Nantes · Away
1.00points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-2
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 2–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Paris FC | D 3–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Nice | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Toulouse | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 A |
| Lille | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Rennes | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Metz | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 12 of 30 · 1.20 per game | 9 of 30 · 0.90 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Lyon wins3 draws0 Nantes wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.63
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 13%
- 26 Jan 2025Nantes1–1Lyon
- 6 Oct 2024Lyon2–0Nantes
- 7 Apr 2024Nantes1–3Lyon
- 20 Dec 2023Lyon1–0Nantes
- 17 Mar 2023Lyon1–1Nantes
- 11 Jan 2023Nantes0–0Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Nantes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 0.92 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.54 | 2.38 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 54% | 62% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 31% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 46% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 54% | 15% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 46% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Lyon | Nantes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.80 | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Nantes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.92 | 6.23 | |
| Match total | 10.92 | 9.61 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 9/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 6/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 6/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.54 | 2.38 | |
| Match total | 4.85 | 4.07 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 77% 10/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 6/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Lyon | Nantes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 9.10 | 9.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.30 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Abdelatif Kherradji France · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 3.75
Red cards0.22league 0.31
Cards 5+39%league 37%
Fouls27.9league 24.1
Penalties0.48league 0.49
Home wins52%league 50%
Lyon1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Oct 24A · LE Havre4–04
Nantes2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.4.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds2
- L18 Apr 25A · Rennes1–26
- D29 Sep 24H · Saint Etienne2–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon13 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
8
76-90
Nantes13 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
3
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 18 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
