Lyon
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Lyon68.3%fair odds 1.46
Draw19.5%fair odds 5.13
Nantes12.2%fair odds 8.22
Expected goals2.20 – 0.82total 3.02
Likeliest score2–011.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Nantes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Lyon ↓ · Nantes → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Lyon goals, columns Nantes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.8%8.49
- 1–010.2%9.76
- 2–19.7%10.32
- 1–19.3%10.79
- 3–08.6%11.57
- 3–17.1%14.07
- 0–05.3%18.75
- 4–04.8%21.03
- 2–24.0%25.10
- 4–13.9%25.58
Winning margin
24.3%
Lyon by 3+
fair 4.11
20.7%
Lyon by 2
fair 4.83
23.3%
Lyon by 1
fair 4.29
19.5%
Draw
fair 5.13
8.4%
Nantes by 1
fair 11.87
2.9%
Nantes by 2
fair 34.59
0.9%
Nantes by 3+
fair 117.49
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
19%5+
Lyon goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
18%4+
Nantes goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon win | 68.3% | 67.5% | +0.8 pp |
| Draw | 19.5% | 19.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Nantes win | 12.2% | 12.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 58.2% | 57.9% | +0.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.3% | 50.6% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Lyon | 2.20 | 2.17 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Nantes | 0.82 | 0.83 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Lyon win68.3%1.46
- Draw19.5%5.13
- Nantes win12.2%8.22
- Double chance Lyon or draw87.8%1.14
- Double chance Lyon or Nantes80.5%1.24
- Double chance Nantes or draw31.7%3.16
- Draw no bet Lyon84.9%1.18
- Draw no bet Nantes15.1%6.62
Goals
- Over 0.594.7%1.06
- Over 1.580.9%1.24
- Over 2.558.2%1.72
- Over 3.535.8%2.79
- Over 4.518.9%5.30
- Under 1.519.1%5.23
- Under 2.541.8%2.39
- Under 3.564.2%1.56
Both teams to score
- Yes50.3%1.99
- No49.7%2.01
- Yes and over 2.541.0%2.44
- Lyon win and yes29.7%3.36
- Draw and yes14.2%7.07
- Nantes win and yes6.4%15.56
Team goals
- Lyon over 0.588.9%1.12
- Lyon over 1.564.6%1.55
- Lyon over 2.537.7%2.65
- Nantes over 0.556.1%1.78
- Nantes over 1.519.9%5.02
- Nantes over 2.55.1%19.73
- Lyon clean sheet43.9%2.28
- Nantes clean sheet11.1%9.03
- Lyon win to nil38.6%2.59
- Nantes win to nil5.7%17.42
Handicap
- Lyon −1.545.0%2.22
- Lyon −2.524.3%4.11
- Nantes +1.555.0%1.82
- Nantes +2.575.7%1.32
- Nantes −1.53.7%26.72
- Lyon +1.596.3%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored125
Favourite won53.6%
Avg chance given to result42.2%
1X2 Brier0.577
Over 2.5 called right55.2%
BTTS called right52.8%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.1% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 39 | 44.5% | 41.0% |
| 50–60% | 30 | 54.0% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 64.7% | 68.4% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 74.5% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 85.6% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 98 of 125 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6151 | 0.6007 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.3% | 40.5% |
| Favourite won | 46.9% | 48.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 98 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 125 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.