Lyon
Attack+11%
Defense risk−18%
Our take
Lyon were clear favourites.
Lyon were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 27). Lyon were without L. Openda and C. Tolisso. Lyon had 3.1 days of rest, Nice 7.2 and had to travel 293 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel293 kmRest days3.1 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Lyon66%
Draw19%
Nice14%
Lyon65%
Draw21%
Nice14%
Lyon67%
Draw19%
Nice14%
Lyon59%
Draw22%
Nice19%
Lyon66%
Draw20%
Nice14%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Décines-Charpieu)
10°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 4 km/h
- Humidity 89%
Referee · FranceFrançois Letexier
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 140
Team strength
Lyon
Nice
60
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
60
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
55
AttackIn forecast
26
56
DefenceIn forecast
35
77
Form indexContext
40
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack−14%
Defense risk+18%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
LyonNice
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
83%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.67
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
37%
On target shareContext
30%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.67
70%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.20
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.83
Shots allowedContext
12.50
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
1.67
BlocksContext
3.33
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
83%
Save rateContext
67%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
468
PassesContext
554
400
Accurate passesContext
486
86%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.83
FoulsContext
8.50
14.17
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.53
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.10
ShotsContext
11.30
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
41%
On target shareContext
29%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
69%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.60
12.40
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
2.30
BlocksContext
3.80
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
78%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
453
PassesContext
488
387
Accurate passesContext
417
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.20
FoulsContext
8.60
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lyon
DWWLW
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,084 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 77 · 10 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.1 vs expected
Nice
LDLWW
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel293 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 40 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lyon |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct | 7.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 293 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,084 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lyon
Confirmed XI
40R. Descamps(G)
16Abner
19M. Niakhaté
22Clinton Mata
13Z. Athekame
2M. Bidstrup
6F. Tessmann
24J. Duranville
99N. Nartey
26K. Boudache
10P. Šulc
Nice
Confirmed XI
23Y. Diouf(G)
35X. Mandza Tsiendi
55Y. Ndayishimiye
5M. Mohamed Ahmed
27N. Nkounkou
6H. Boudaoui
28A. Witsel
92J. Clauss
9M. Amoura
7G. Hein
11S. Wahi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lyon
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −29.6% · Defence line −9.7% of weighted minutes
- ATT L. Openda Starter 6.72 Att −20.1%
- MID C. Tolisso Starter 7.16 Att −9.5% Def −5.4%
- DEF N. Tagliafico Rotation 6.66 Def −2.8%
- DEF Mohamed Ouédraogo Rotation 6.92 Def −1.5%
Nice
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −5.7% · Defence line −10.5% of weighted minutes
- DEF A. Mendy Rotation 6.61 Def −4.5%
- MID M. Sanson Rotation 6.58 Att −4.5% Def −2.1%
- DEF A. Abdi Rotation 6.58 Def −3.4%
- MID D. Coulibaly Rotation 6.60 Att −1.2% Def −0.6%
Total impact vs full squads
- Lyon-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Nice+0.4 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Lyon · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Nice · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Lyon | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | D 0–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Auxerre | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Lyon wins2 draws3 Nice wins
Goals per game1.70 – 1.10
Over 2.540%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 10%
- 15 Feb 2026Lyon2–0Nice
- 18 Oct 2025Nice3–2Lyon
- 9 Mar 2025Nice0–2Lyon
- 1 Dec 2024Lyon4–1Nice
- 16 Feb 2024Lyon1–0Nice
- 27 Aug 2023Nice0–0Lyon
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lyon | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.00 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Lyon | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 1.90 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lyon | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 5.17 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.83 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 10.66 | 8.50 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.83 | 0.83 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.33 | 3.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Lyon | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 9.70 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.90 | 3.45 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · François Letexier France · 140 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.01league 3.31
Red cards0.25league 0.13
Cards 5+44%league 27%
Fouls22.2league 24.0
Penalties0.34league 0.44
Home wins49%league 44%
Lyon18 with this referee
Record7-3-8
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 3
Reds2
- D29 Aug 26H · LE Havre1–10
- L17 May 26H · Lens0–41
- L22 Mar 26H · Monaco1–22
- W1 Feb 26H · Lille1–00
- W31 Aug 25H · Marseille1–02
Nice13 with this referee
Record3-4-6
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L12 Sep 26A · Auxerre0–11
- L10 May 26A · Auxerre1–20
- W14 Mar 26A · Angers2–03
- L1 Nov 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–11
- L17 Jan 25A · Lille1–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Lyon6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Nice6 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Lyon10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
