Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Dinamo Zagreb – 2 Oct 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 2 · 20:00 TSC Arena, Bačka Topola

Maccabi Tel Aviv 24th · 1 pts · 1 played D

1–3Full time

Dinamo Zagreb 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Dinamo Zagreb were slight favourites.

Dinamo Zagreb were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 22). Maccabi Tel Aviv had 8.1 days of rest, Dinamo Zagreb 8 and had to travel 283 km.

Away travel283 kmRest days8.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Maccabi Tel Aviv24%

Draw25%

Dinamo Zagreb51%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.72

Maccabi Tel Aviv24%

Draw26%

Dinamo Zagreb50%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.66

Maccabi Tel Aviv24%

Draw25%

Dinamo Zagreb51%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.70

Maccabi Tel Aviv19%

Draw23%

Dinamo Zagreb59%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.93

Maccabi Tel Aviv24%

Draw25%

Dinamo Zagreb50%

Expected goals 1.10 – 1.68

Over 2.5 54% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bačka Topola)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalAntonio Nobre

Cards per match 5.4
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 66

Team strength

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Dinamo Zagreb

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 55

19 Current StrengthIn forecast 43

19 AttackIn forecast 33

20 DefenceIn forecast 44

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Attack—

Defense risk—

Dinamo Zagreb

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Dinamo Zagreb

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.82 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.88

+0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.77

60% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.33 ShotsContext 9.40

4.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.22

45% On target shareContext 31%

5.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.78

60% Box shareContext 56%

11% ConversionContext 18%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.00 Shots allowedContext 14.60

3.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.00 BlocksContext 4.10

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20

64% Save rateContext 58%

49% PossessionIn forecast 38%

396 PassesContext 340

329 Accurate passesContext 268

83% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.91

11.67 FoulsContext 10.40

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Maccabi Tel Aviv

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Dinamo Zagreb

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel283 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Maccabi Tel Aviv	Dinamo Zagreb
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep	8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 24 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	—	283 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	21	21

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Maccabi Tel Aviv Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

90R. Mishpati(G)

3R. Revivo 5M. Camara 4Heitor 6T. Asante

28I. Sissokho 23B. Lederman

10K. Andrade 17K. Belić 29Hélio Varela

34S. Abu Farkhi

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Dinamo Zagreb Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

33I. Nevistić(G)

3B. Goda 26S. McKenna 28K. Théophile-Catherine 25Moris Valinčić

27J. Mišić 8M. Zajc

11A. Hoxha 77D. Ljubičić 21M. Lisica

9D. Beljo

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Maccabi Tel Aviv Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Dinamo Zagreb Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.2 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Dinamo Zagreb+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Maccabi Tel Aviv · Home No home games yet this season.

Dinamo Zagreb · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Maccabi Tel Aviv	Dinamo Zagreb	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	3.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	0.00	4.00	2.85
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	56%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	Maccabi Tel Aviv	Dinamo Zagreb	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	3.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	0.00	4.00	2.85
Over 1.5	0%	100%
Over 2.5	0%	100%	54%
Over 3.5	0%	100%
Both teams scored	0%	100%	56%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Maccabi Tel Aviv	Dinamo Zagreb	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.00
Corners conceded	9.00	6.00
Match total	12.00	11.00	9.52
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.00
Opponent cards	1.00	3.00
Match total	4.00	5.00	4.37
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	Maccabi Tel Aviv	Dinamo Zagreb	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	3.89
Corners conceded	5.83	7.33
Match total	10.33	11.22	9.52
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.30
Opponent cards	2.40	2.40
Match total	4.30	4.70	4.37
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Antonio Nobre Portugal · 66 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.03league 4.19

Red cards0.41league 0.19

Cards 5+56%league 41%

Fouls28.2league 26.3

Penalties0.35league 0.30

Home wins61%league 37%

Maccabi Tel Aviv

No previous matches with this referee.

Dinamo Zagreb

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.