Malaga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Malaga were slight favourites.
Malaga were the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Malaga. Malaga had 5 days of rest, Deportivo La Coruna 7 and had to travel 813 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel813 kmRest days5 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Malaga52%
Draw25%
Deportivo La Coruna23%
Malaga48%
Draw25%
Deportivo La Coruna27%
Malaga52%
Draw25%
Deportivo La Coruna24%
Malaga44%
Draw26%
Deportivo La Coruna29%
Malaga52%
Draw25%
Deportivo La Coruna24%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Málaga)
Warm
28°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 46%
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 44
Team strength
Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
41
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
28
AttackIn forecast
40
31
DefenceIn forecast
57
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDeportivo La Coruna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MalagaDeportivo La Coruna
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
0.85
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.53
80%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.20
ShotsContext
12.70
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
39%
On target shareContext
37%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
72%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
12%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.14
11.80
Shots allowedContext
10.90
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.50
BlocksContext
3.60
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
72%
Save rateContext
81%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
482
PassesContext
430
412
Accurate passesContext
367
86%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.20
FoulsContext
12.70
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Malaga
L
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km831 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 44 · 0 pts vs 0.7 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
- L19 AugA · Atletico Madrid0–20.8 xPts
Deportivo La Coruna
D
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel813 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 44 · 1 pts vs 1.7 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
- D17 AugH · Elche1–11.6 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Malaga |
Deportivo La Coruna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2026-2027, 19 Aug | 7La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 813 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 831 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Malaga
Confirmed XI
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
31Rafita
4Einar Galilea
15Ángel Recio
3Puga
23Izan Merino
11Joaquín Muñoz
22Dani Lorenzo
8Carlos Dotor
19Juan Cruz
9Chupe
Deportivo La Coruna
Confirmed XI
13Leo Román(G)
12G. Quagliata
15Miguel Loureiro
4L. Noubi
23Ximo Navarro
21Mario Soriano
16L. Amatucci
18J. Asp Jensen
19Luismi Cruz
2Adrià Alti
7P. Aubameyang
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Malaga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Deportivo La Coruna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Malaga+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Deportivo La Coruna-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Malaga · Home
No home games yet this season.
Deportivo La Coruna · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Malaga wins1 draws0 Deportivo La Coruna wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 4 Apr 2026Deportivo La Coruna1–1Malaga
- 12 Oct 2025Malaga3–0Deportivo La Coruna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Malaga | Deportivo La Coruna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Malaga | Deportivo La Coruna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Malaga | Deportivo La Coruna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 8.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 4.00 | 5.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Malaga | Deportivo La Coruna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.90 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 10.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 5.20 | 5.23 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.50league 4.87
Red cards0.20league 0.27
Cards 5+27%league 60%
Fouls24.5league 27.4
Penalties0.36league 0.47
Home wins52%league 40%
MalagaNo previous matches with this referee.
Deportivo La CorunaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Malaga1 games · scored 0 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Deportivo La Coruna1 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
4
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Deportivo La Coruna10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
