Malaga
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Malaga51.3%fair odds 1.95
Draw25.9%fair odds 3.86
Deportivo La Coruna22.9%fair odds 4.37
Expected goals1.64 – 1.01total 2.65
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Deportivo La Coruna
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Malaga ↓ · Deportivo La Coruna → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Malaga goals, columns Deportivo La Coruna goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.10
- 1–010.9%9.15
- 2–19.6%10.43
- 2–09.4%10.58
- 0–07.7%13.02
- 0–16.5%15.28
- 1–25.9%16.82
- 3–15.2%19.13
- 3–05.2%19.41
- 2–24.9%20.56
Winning margin
11.8%
Malaga by 3+
fair 8.48
15.9%
Malaga by 2
fair 6.29
23.6%
Malaga by 1
fair 4.24
25.9%
Draw
fair 3.86
14.4%
Deportivo La Coruna by 1
fair 6.95
6.1%
Deportivo La Coruna by 2
fair 16.36
2.4%
Deportivo La Coruna by 3+
fair 42.33
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Malaga goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Deportivo La Coruna goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga win | 51.3% | 51.0% | +0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.9% | 25.9% | -0.1 pp |
| Deportivo La Coruna win | 22.9% | 23.0% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.4% | 49.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.0% | 52.0% | -0.0 pp |
| Expected goals Malaga | 1.64 | 1.63 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Deportivo La Coruna | 1.01 | 1.02 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Malaga win51.3%1.95
- Draw25.9%3.86
- Deportivo La Coruna win22.9%4.37
- Double chance Malaga or draw77.1%1.30
- Double chance Malaga or Deportivo La Coruna74.1%1.35
- Double chance Deportivo La Coruna or draw48.7%2.05
- Draw no bet Malaga69.2%1.45
- Draw no bet Deportivo La Coruna30.8%3.24
Goals
- Over 0.592.3%1.08
- Over 1.574.8%1.34
- Over 2.549.4%2.02
- Over 3.527.5%3.64
- Over 4.513.0%7.70
- Under 1.525.2%3.98
- Under 2.550.6%1.98
- Under 3.572.5%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes52.0%1.92
- No48.0%2.08
- Yes and over 2.539.6%2.52
- Malaga win and yes22.7%4.41
- Draw and yes18.2%5.49
- Deportivo La Coruna win and yes11.1%9.04
Team goals
- Malaga over 0.580.5%1.24
- Malaga over 1.548.7%2.06
- Malaga over 2.522.6%4.43
- Deportivo La Coruna over 0.563.7%1.57
- Deportivo La Coruna over 1.527.0%3.71
- Deportivo La Coruna over 2.58.3%12.04
- Malaga clean sheet36.3%2.76
- Deportivo La Coruna clean sheet19.5%5.13
- Malaga win to nil28.6%3.50
- Deportivo La Coruna win to nil11.8%8.48
Handicap
- Malaga −1.527.7%3.61
- Malaga −2.511.8%8.48
- Deportivo La Coruna +1.572.3%1.38
- Deportivo La Coruna +2.588.2%1.13
- Deportivo La Coruna −1.58.5%11.80
- Malaga +1.591.5%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored15
Favourite won46.7%
Avg chance given to result38.1%
1X2 Brier0.612
Over 2.5 called right46.7%
BTTS called right53.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.5% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 9 | 44.6% | 22.2% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 57.4% | 100.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 62.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 15 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 15 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.