Malaga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Levante. Malaga had 7.1 days of rest, Levante 8.1 and had to travel 468 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel468 kmRest days7.1 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Malaga39%
Draw25%
Levante36%
Malaga43%
Draw26%
Levante31%
Malaga41%
Draw25%
Levante34%
Malaga32%
Draw24%
Levante43%
Malaga39%
Draw25%
Levante36%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Málaga)
Heat stress
29°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 55%
RefereeLuis Bestard Servera
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 23
Team strength
Malaga
Levante
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
41
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
28
AttackIn forecast
55
31
DefenceIn forecast
41
34
Form indexContext
53
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MalagaLevante
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.67
0.94
xGVia Att/Def
1.44
1.55
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
-0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
33%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.67
ShotsContext
11.33
1.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
13%
On target shareContext
32%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
56%
Box shareContext
56%
3%
ConversionContext
15%
1.33
OffsidesContext
1.67
13.33
Shots allowedContext
16.00
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.33
4.00
BlocksContext
2.33
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
67%
Save rateContext
74%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
486
PassesContext
393
425
Accurate passesContext
329
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.67
FoulsContext
9.33
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
0.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.47
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.60
ShotsContext
13.50
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.22
34%
On target shareContext
35%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
67%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.22
12.50
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.56
3.00
BlocksContext
2.50
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
75%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
458
PassesContext
375
391
Accurate passesContext
311
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.84
11.20
FoulsContext
10.40
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Malaga
LDL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km831 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 34 · 1 pts vs 2.9 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Malaga |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1La Liga 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 8.1La Liga 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 468 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 831 km | 773 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Malaga
Confirmed XI
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
12José Salinas
4Einar Galilea
15Ángel Recio
31Rafita
22Dani Lorenzo
18Pablo Martínez
8Carlos Dotor
19Juan Cruz
9Chupe
10David Larrubia
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2A. Mandi
4Adrián de la Fuente
29Nacho Pérez
20Oriol Rey
24T. Fernandez
8Jon Ander Olasagasti
18E. Bardeli
7Roger Brugué
9Iván Romero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Malaga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Levante
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Malaga-1.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Levante+1.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Malaga · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Levante · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Malaga | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 1.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.33 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 67% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Malaga | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.30 | 2.91 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 60% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 30% | |
| Games | 3 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Malaga | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 8.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 13.00 | 10.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 0.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 2.67 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/3 | |
| Malaga | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.66 | 10.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.50 | 4.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luis Bestard Servera 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.13league 4.25
Red cards0.26league 0.22
Cards 5+70%league 44%
Fouls27.3league 24.9
Penalties0.17league 0.31
Home wins30%league 53%
Malaga2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W2 May 26A · Eibar4–23
- W23 Jan 26H · Burgos3–03
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Malaga3 games · scored 1 · conceded 7
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Levante3 games · scored 5 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
5
0-15
1
16-30
7
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
