Mallorca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Mallorca13.8%fair odds 7.24
Draw21.0%fair odds 4.76
Barcelona65.2%fair odds 1.53
Expected goals0.84 – 2.06total 2.90
Likeliest score0–211.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Barcelona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Mallorca ↓ · Barcelona → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Mallorca goals, columns Barcelona goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 0–211.7%8.58
- 0–110.8%9.25
- 1–110.0%9.98
- 1–29.8%10.20
- 0–38.0%12.48
- 1–36.7%14.84
- 0–06.0%16.69
- 0–44.1%24.21
- 2–24.1%24.24
- 1–04.1%24.32
Winning margin
1.0%
Mallorca by 3+
fair 98.51
3.3%
Mallorca by 2
fair 29.97
9.5%
Mallorca by 1
fair 10.58
21.0%
Draw
fair 4.76
23.9%
Barcelona by 1
fair 4.18
20.0%
Barcelona by 2
fair 4.99
21.2%
Barcelona by 3+
fair 4.71
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Mallorca goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
Barcelona goals
13%0
26%1
27%2
19%3
15%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mallorca win | 13.8% | 14.6% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 21.0% | 21.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Barcelona win | 65.2% | 64.1% | +1.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 55.9% | -0.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.1% | 51.2% | -1.1 pp |
| Expected goals Mallorca | 0.84 | 0.87 | -0.03 |
| Expected goals Barcelona | 2.06 | 2.05 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Mallorca win13.8%7.24
- Draw21.0%4.76
- Barcelona win65.2%1.53
- Double chance Mallorca or draw34.8%2.87
- Double chance Mallorca or Barcelona79.0%1.27
- Double chance Barcelona or draw86.2%1.16
- Draw no bet Mallorca17.5%5.72
- Draw no bet Barcelona82.5%1.21
Goals
- Over 0.594.0%1.06
- Over 1.579.1%1.26
- Over 2.555.5%1.80
- Over 3.533.1%3.02
- Over 4.516.9%5.93
- Under 1.520.9%4.78
- Under 2.544.5%2.25
- Under 3.566.9%1.49
Both teams to score
- Yes50.1%1.99
- No49.9%2.01
- Yes and over 2.540.1%2.49
- Mallorca win and yes7.1%14.14
- Draw and yes15.0%6.65
- Barcelona win and yes28.0%3.57
Team goals
- Mallorca over 0.556.9%1.76
- Mallorca over 1.520.6%4.85
- Mallorca over 2.55.4%18.69
- Barcelona over 0.587.3%1.15
- Barcelona over 1.561.0%1.64
- Barcelona over 2.534.0%2.94
- Mallorca clean sheet12.7%7.86
- Barcelona clean sheet43.1%2.32
- Mallorca win to nil6.7%14.85
- Barcelona win to nil37.1%2.69
Handicap
- Mallorca −1.54.4%22.98
- Mallorca −2.51.0%98.51
- Barcelona +1.595.6%1.05
- Barcelona +2.599.0%1.01
- Barcelona −1.541.3%2.42
- Mallorca +1.558.7%1.70
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored2
Favourite won50.0%
Avg chance given to result52.4%
1X2 Brier0.405
Over 2.5 called right0.0%
BTTS called right100.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 39.7% | 0.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 72.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 2 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
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- ✗Girona 1–3 Rayo Vallecano40·28·32
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 2 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.