Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Mallorca were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Mallorca. Mallorca had 7.8 days of rest, Elche 6.1 and had to travel 324 km.
Away travel324 kmRest days7.8 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Mallorca44%
Draw27%
Elche28%
Mallorca47%
Draw26%
Elche27%
Mallorca45%
Draw27%
Elche27%
Mallorca37%
Draw28%
Elche35%
Mallorca46%
Draw26%
Elche28%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 33
Team strength
Mallorca
Elche
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
50
AttackIn forecast
39
59
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisElche
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaElche
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
73%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
10.07
ShotsContext
10.80
3.87
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.07
38%
On target shareContext
38%
5.86
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
59%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.27
14.07
Shots allowedContext
12.33
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.53
3.62
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
73%
Save rateContext
70%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
371
PassesContext
522
295
Accurate passesContext
455
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.87
FoulsContext
12.80
12.47
Fouls sufferedContext
14.53
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.60
ShotsContext
11.40
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
37%
On target shareContext
40%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
55%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
3.25
OffsidesContext
2.38
14.20
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.50
BlocksContext
3.90
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
73%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
367
PassesContext
524
288
Accurate passesContext
456
79%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.70
FoulsContext
13.00
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.30
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,646 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Elche
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel324 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Elche |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Dec | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 324 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,646 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
21Raíllo
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
5Omar Mascarell
8Manu Morlanes
17J. Virgili
10Darder
18Mateo Joseph
7V. Muriqi
Elche
Confirmed XI
13Iñaki Peña(G)
6Bigas
23Víctor Chust
22D. Affengruber
15Alvaro Núñez
8Marc Aguado
7Yago Santiago
14Aleix Febas
16Martim Neto
11Germán Valera
10Rafa Mir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Elche
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca-0.9 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Elche+1.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.43points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.14
Elche · Away
0.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-4
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Osasuna | D 2–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 3–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 H |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 14 of 42 · 1.00 per game | 16 of 42 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Mallorca wins2 draws2 Elche wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 4 Mar 2023Mallorca0–1Elche
- 10 Oct 2022Elche1–1Mallorca
- 16 Apr 2022Elche3–0Mallorca
- 7 Nov 2021Mallorca2–2Elche
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.47 | 2.33 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 40% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 20% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Mallorca | Elche | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.40 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.79 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.29 | 7.40 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 12/14 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 6/14 | 20% 3/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 6/14 | 13% 2/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.13 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.47 | 4.33 | 4.39 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 9/15 | 73% 11/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 6/15 | 47% 7/15 | |
| Mallorca | Elche | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 7.90 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.50 | 4.39 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 4.13
Red cards0.30league 0.29
Cards 5+55%league 46%
Fouls25.5league 24.7
Penalties0.18league 0.33
Home wins36%league 47%
Mallorca3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.4.3 · 0.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L16 Aug 25H · Barcelona0–36
- W11 Feb 24H · Rayo Vallecano2–14
- W16 Sep 23A · Celta Vigo1–03
ElcheNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca15 games · scored 15 · conceded 22
2
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
46-60
5
61-75
5
7
76-90
Elche15 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
7
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
7
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Elche10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
