Mallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Mallorca were slight favourites.
Mallorca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 39). Mallorca had 15.9 days of rest, Girona 14.2 and had to travel 269 km.
Away travel269 kmRest days15.9 · 14.2Matches / 14d0 · 0
Mallorca49%
Draw27%
Girona24%
Mallorca50%
Draw26%
Girona25%
Mallorca48%
Draw27%
Girona25%
Mallorca41%
Draw28%
Girona30%
Mallorca50%
Draw26%
Girona24%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Palma de Mallorca)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 32
Team strength
Mallorca
Girona
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
50
AttackIn forecast
49
59
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGirona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
MallorcaGirona
1.12
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.94
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.58
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
76%
Scored inContext
65%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
9.94
ShotsContext
9.29
3.94
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.47
40%
On target shareContext
37%
5.94
Shots in the boxContext
5.88
59%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.46
13.88
Shots allowedContext
16.24
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.35
4.29
BlocksContext
3.65
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.65
73%
Save rateContext
68%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
364
PassesContext
428
291
Accurate passesContext
364
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.72
10.82
FoulsContext
10.18
12.35
Fouls sufferedContext
14.82
2.12
Yellow cardsContext
2.06
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.50
ShotsContext
9.30
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
40%
On target shareContext
39%
5.44
Shots in the boxContext
6.00
54%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.80
Shots allowedContext
15.90
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
5.20
BlocksContext
3.60
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
69%
Save rateContext
72%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
367
PassesContext
445
293
Accurate passesContext
383
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.80
9.90
FoulsContext
10.90
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
15.90
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Mallorca
Rest15.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Girona
Rest14.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel269 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Mallorca |
Girona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.9La Liga 2025-2026, 19 Dec | 14.2La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 269 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
21Raíllo
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
12Samú Costa
8Manu Morlanes
17J. Virgili
10Darder
11T. Asano
7V. Muriqi
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
24Álex Moreno
17D. Blind
12Vitor Reis
4Arnau Martínez
20A. Witsel
21Bryan Gil
11T. Lemar
23Iván Martín
15V. Tsyhankov
19V. Vanat
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Mallorca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Girona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Mallorca+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Girona-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Mallorca · Home
1.63points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-1
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.13
Girona · Away
0.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Mallorca | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Elche | W 3–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| Villarreal | L 1–2 A | L 0–5 A |
| Getafe | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Real Betis | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | L 0–4 H |
| Sevilla | W 3–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Espanyol | L 2–3 A | D 0–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 17 of 48 · 1.06 per game | 15 of 48 · 0.94 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Mallorca wins1 draws3 Girona wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.67
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 5 May 2025Girona1–0Mallorca
- 14 Dec 2024Mallorca2–1Girona
- 3 Mar 2024Mallorca1–0Girona
- 23 Sep 2023Girona5–3Mallorca
- 4 May 2023Girona2–1Mallorca
- 3 Sep 2022Mallorca1–1Girona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Mallorca | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.12 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.53 | 2.82 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 59% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 24% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 59% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 35% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Mallorca | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.90 | 2.50 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Mallorca | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.31 | 4.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 10.06 | 9.40 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 81% 13/16 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 7/16 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 7/16 | 40% 6/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 1.24 | |
| Match total | 4.35 | 3.53 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 10/17 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 6/17 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Mallorca | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.78 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.33 | 4.75 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 4.36 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.56league 4.12
Red cards0.19league 0.26
Cards 5+28%league 46%
Fouls24.9league 24.4
Penalties0.31league 0.33
Home wins47%league 47%
Mallorca4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L14 May 25A · Real Madrid1–23
- L4 May 24H · Atletico Madrid0–12
- W9 Dec 23H · Sevilla1–02
- L18 Aug 23H · Villarreal0–12
Girona2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L15 Aug 25H · Rayo Vallecano1–31
- W20 Apr 24H · Cadiz4–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Mallorca17 games · scored 19 · conceded 24
3
4
0-15
2
5
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
46-60
5
61-75
7
7
76-90
Girona17 games · scored 15 · conceded 33
2
3
0-15
4
6
16-30
1
6
31-45
1
7
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
6
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
5
4
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
4
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
